中国农业碳排放地区差异与收敛性分析.docVIP

中国农业碳排放的地区差异与收敛性分析 　　摘要：从农业碳排放源头入手，估算了1993 ― 2011年中国省际农业碳排放总量，并运用泰尔指数及其分解方法，对中国农业碳强度分布的地区差异进行测度并按照东、中、西三大区域进行了结构分解，同时借鉴经济增长理论中的收敛性检验方法，对中国农业碳强度的区域差异进行了收敛性检验。研究发现：①从总体上看，中国农业碳排放总量基本上呈现上升趋势，且前期上升较快，后期上升较慢；②中国农业碳强度的分布存在明显的区域差异，而且差异主要来自于三大区域内部，其中西部地区对农业碳强度总体差异的影响最大；③运用面板数据证实了1994 ― 2011年中国农业碳强度的地区分布不存在σ收敛和条件β收敛。以上结论表明中国农业碳强度水平不会自动降低到稳态，政府对农业碳减排的政策干预将是必不可少的。 　　关键词：农业碳强度；区域差异；泰尔指数；收敛性 　　中图分类号：F323.22 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2016）04-1066-07 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2016.04.062 　　Regional Differences and Convergence of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China 　　YANG Xiu-yu 　　（School of Economics， Shandong Normal University， Jinan 250014， China） 　　Abstract： From the source of agricultural carbon emission， the provincial agricultural carbon emissions from 1993 to 2011 in China were estimated，by using Theil index and its decomposition method to measure the regional differences of the agricultural carbon intensity distribution in China， and conduct a structural decomposition according to the three major regions of east， middle and west. At the same time， the convergence testing method of the economic growth theory was used for reference to perform a convergence test on the regional differences of agricultural carbon intensity in China. It concluded that， ①Generally speaking，China’s agricultural carbon emissions basically showed a rising trend， and the pre-rise was faster， the late rise was slow；②The distribution of China’s agricultural carbon intensity have obvious regional differences and the differences came mainly from the inside of the three major regions， of which the west region have the greatest influence on the overall difference of agricultural carbon intensity；③The results of the estimate with the panel data showed that there was neither σ convergence nor conditional β convergence. The above conclusion indicated that China’s agricultural carbon intensity will not automatically reduce to the steady state，the government policy intervention to reduce agr