基于多项式回归模型枯季径流预报与分析.docVIP

基于多项式回归模型枯季径流预报与分析 　　摘要:冶河流域径流的补给来源主要是大气降水,径流和降水主要集中在5月-10月。由于受地质环境条件、流域下垫面因素作用,汛期径流与枯季径流存在良好的相关关系。枯季径流预报采用汛期径流量与枯季径流量建立多项式回归模型,通过对不同阶数的多项式进行对比分析,三阶多项式曲线拟合程度较好。采用符号检验和偏离数值检验法对该曲线进行检验,曲线拟合效果显著。并对枯季径流预报结果进行评价,按照枯季径流预报规范的要求,预报合格率达 89.3%。该流域枯季径流,是沿河工业用水、灌溉用水的主要来源,分析和预报冶河枯季径流来水情况,为制定工农业用水方案提供科学依据。 　　关键词:枯季径流预报;多项式回归模型;曲线拟合检验;平山水文站 　　中图分类号:T333.3文献标识码:A文章编号:1672-1683(2010)05-0085-04 　　 　　Polynomial Regression Model Based on the Low Flow Forecasting and Analysis 　　HE Zhen-qi??1, QIAO Guang-jian??2 　　(Shijiazhuang Bureau for Hydrology and Water Resources Survey,Shijiazhuang 050051,China;Xingtai Bureau for Hydrology and Water Resources Survey,Xingtai 054000,China) 　　 　　Abstract: The source of the Yehe River basin runoff is primarily originated from the precipitated water,mainly from May to October.Due to the effect of geological condition and basin underlying factor,there existed a positive relation between the flood season runoff and dry season runoff.The forecasting of the dry season runoff adopts a multinomial regression model.Through the analysis and comparison of the multinomial regression of different orders,the fitting curve of order 3 is preferable.Using the sign test and residual test method in the text of the curve,the fitting result is noteworthy.According to the demand of the dry season runoff prediction standard,the predicting result has a pass rate of 89.3%.The dry season runoff of this basin is the main source of water supply of industrial use and irrigation.Analysis and forecasting of the dry season runoff could provide scientific evidences to the scheme of water supply of agricultural and industrial use. 　　Key words: dry season runoff prediction;multinomial regression model; fitting curve text;Pingshan Hydrological Station 　　枯水径流是指当地面径流减少、河水主要接受地下水补给时的河川流量,它是河川径流特殊情势的一种。枯水经历的时间为枯水期,以雨雪补给的北方河流,除雨少的冬季为枯水期以外,每年春末夏初的积雪融水由河网排泄后,在夏季雨季到来之前,还会经历一次枯水期。目前,河川枯季径流预报主要方法有回归分析法、数理统计法、模糊数学法、灰色系统法、人工神经网路模型、遗传算法等多种方法。其中回归分析法包括一元线性回归分析法、多线性回归分析法和逐步回归分析法。本文采用多元线性回归