基于能源足迹环渤海可持续发展评价.docVIP

基于能源足迹环渤海可持续发展评价 　　摘要:采用能源消费数据及社会经济相关资料,依据能源足迹的碳吸收计量模型、能源足迹强度及生态压力等概念分析环渤海区域可持续性,通过STIRPAT 模型揭示驱动因子的边际效应,并尝试结合人类发展指数评价区域可持续发展状况。结果表明,区域人均能源足迹从2001年0.625 8 hm2上升至2010年1.405 4 hm2,年均增幅为13.84%,且2010年能源足迹赤字为2001年的2.44倍,发展严重不可持续;区域内煤类足迹占总能源足迹的比例平均为78.86%,而能源足迹强度从2001年的0.550 5 hm2/万元降至2010年的0.338 6 hm2/万元,年均下降4.28%;能源生态压力指数从2001年的5.939 7增至2010年的13.619 4,生态系统严重不安全;能源足迹与人均GDP和能源足迹强度呈正相关,与人口数量呈负相关,边际弹性系数分别为4.201 467、0.821 476和-0.000 414;区域HDI及健康指数、教育指数和GDP指数均高于全国平均值,社会经济发展较好。该研究可为环渤海经济圈可持续发展研究奠定基础,也对类似研究有借鉴意义。 　　关键词:环渤海;能源足迹;人类发展指数;可持续发展 　　中图分类号:X22;X171文献标识码:A文章编号:0439-8114(2014)11-2508-06 　　 　　Evaluation on Sustainable Development of the Bohai Rim Based on Energy 　　Ecological Footprint Method 　　 　　TAN Fei-fei1, LU Zhao-hua1,2,ZHANG Meng1 　　(1. Institute of Restoration Ecology, China University of Mining Technology, Beijing 100083, China;2. Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Eco-Environmental Science for Yellow River Delta, Binzhou University, Binzhou 256603, Shandong,China) 　　 　　Abstract: With the gradual expansion of economic scale in the Bohai Rim, energy and the consequent environmental problems have become the major factors restricting its further development. The sustainability of the Bohai Rim in the time series was analyzed based on the model of carbon absorption, energy footprint intensify and ecological pressure. The marginal contribution of driving factors in energy footprint was studied by STIRPAT model, with the state of sustainable development evaluated by attempting to integrate with human development index, according to the statistical data of energy consumption and social economy materials. The results showed that energy footprint per capita in the Bohai Rim was increased from 0.625 8 hm2 to 1.405 4 hm2 within the past ten years, growing at 12.46% annually and appearing rising trend. In terms of the value, Tianjin and Hebei were located in front of others. The value of energy deficit in 2010 was 2.44 times more than that in 2001, demonstrati