汇丰银行x年一季度亚洲经济形势解析.pdfVIP

Asian Macro ECONOMICS Economics – Asia Q1 2013 Back in orbit After losing altitude last year, Asia’s economic engine, led by China, has fired up again Lots of stimulus, injected by global central banks, will propel growth in the coming quarters As Asia settles into orbit, it’ll have to cool its thrusters to avoid prices from overheating By Qu Hongbin and Frederic Neumann Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it Macro Economics - Asia abc Q1 2013 Summary Asia lost a little altitude in 2012. A couple of reasons. China’s engine cooled, partly by design, and shipments to the West, above all the EU, dipped. 2013 should turn out to be better. Already, data has turned up, especially on the domestic side. Trade will follow, driven primarily by shipments to the Mainland, which should speed up over the coming months. Loose monetary conditions, along with soaring capital inflows, are driving up leverage further in Asia. This is unsustainable over time. But, with easy money available throughout this year, the process will continue. Inflation will become a headache earlier on. Price pressures are building across the region. Monetary tightening is needed. China