TOT项目风险管理研究-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

河北工 河北工业大学硕士学位论文 TOT 项目风险管理研究 摘 要 近年来世界各国基本都处于和平与发展阶段，社会生活水平有了突飞猛进的 提高，城市人口数量剧增，城市基础设施远远不能满足不断增长的需求。但各国 尤其是发展中国家政府财力和技术水平严重缺乏，为解决这一问题，各国争相采 取市场化经营，各种融资模式发挥了重要作用，其中发展迅速的 BOT 项目广受关 注。然而由于很多发展中国家法律制度不够完善，投资者照搬 BOT 模式成功率很 低，在各种探索中，TOT 项目登上历史舞台。 TOT 模式相对较容易操作，灵活性强，针对相对落后的发展中国家招商引资 效果非常好，广受国际投资者喜爱。TOT 项目正如其他基础设施项目一样，投资 规模大，运营周期长，面临各种风险的考验，而且该类项目多为公益性项目，涉 及相关方众多，其产品或服务质量直接影响公众的利益，若掉以轻心容易引发社 会问题，所以 TOT 项目的风险管理肩负着重大责任。但是由于该类项目起步较晚， 其风险研究较少，没有一个系统的风险识别及应对模型可供参考，所以项目发展 存在很大的阻碍。 本文通过对 TOT 项目风险进行系统研究，总结 TOT 项目运营特点；对 TOT 项 目进行风险识别，建立风险识别指标体系；引入 FAHP 的改进模型对 TOT 项目风 险进行评估；总结风险应对措施风险监控过程中应注意的问题；最后进行实证分 析，得出结论。 关键词：TOT 项目，风险管理， FAHP 的改进模型 i TO TOT 项目风险管理研究 Risk Management Research of TOT Project ABSTRACT Majority of countries were developing Stable in recent years, the level of social life have the enhancement which progressed by leaps and bounds, the urban population increased sharply, the city infrastructure have not been able to satisfy unceasingly the aggregate demand by far. But various countries particularly developing country government financial resource and the technical level lack seriously, to solve this problem, various countries struggle adopt the marketability management, each kind of financing pattern has played the influential role, develops the rapid BOT project to be widely-noted. However the many developing country legal regime insufficient consummation, the investor imitates the BOT pattern success ratio to be very low, in each kind of exploration, the TOT project steps into the historical arena. The TOT pattern operate easily, it is good in view of the relative backwardnesss developing country, because it attracted investments effectively. It is liked broadly by the international investor. Just like the other infrastructure project, its’ investment scale is large, and the life cycle is long, moreover the TOT project usually a public welfare project, involves the related side to be numerous, its product or grade of service immediate influence publics benefit, if l