汇率探究（英文版）.pdfVIP

StraightTalk Nov/Dec 2003 from Chief Economist Gail Fosler Exchange Rates Dear Reader: Many aspects of the U.S. and global outlook are falling into place. Financial markets read the November jobs report too negatively, dismissing the rapid growth in hours and prospective economic g lo b a l growth because of disappointment in the payroll jobs portion of the i n d i c ato r s report. Unemployment insurance claims, The Conference Board’s p r o g r a m Help Wanted Index, and the jobs questions in the Consumer Confidence Index all signal that a new cyclical phase in hiring has begun. Indeed, Leading and Coincident Indexes the growth in hours worked—possibly as high as 3 percent for the fourth for Australia, France, Germany, Japan, quarter—combined with even a modest productivity assumption suggests Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United that the fourth quarter GDP could well come in above consensus Kingdom, and the United States estimates. The U.S. forecast (see back page) contains upward revisions are on The Conference Board’s in growth for 2003 and for 2004, with growth in 2004 likely to approach Global Indicators Web site at a 6 percent annual rate. But it is not possible to declare victory on the economic outlook when a key global signal, namely, the