城市物流业碳排放测算及影响因素分析--以天津市为例-calculation of carbon emissions in urban logistics industry and analysis of influencing factors - taking tianjin as an example.docxVIP

摘 要 随着经济的发展，能源消耗量逐年增高，带来的环境污染越来越严重。工业的 碳排放量最高，物流业是碳排放量位居第二的产业，消耗的能源以石油等碳排放较 高的能源为主。低碳物流越来越多的被提到国家日程。研究物流业的碳排放问题具 有非常大的现实意义及理论意义。 天津市是国家低碳城市试点之一，所以本文以天津市为例对城市物流业的碳排 放问题进行研究。要想有效降低天津市物流业的碳排放，找到碳排放的影响因素是 非常重要的。 本文首先对天津市物流业在 1995-2010 年间的碳排放量进行逐年测算，并对测 算结果进行分析。然后，应用 LMDI 因素分解法(Logarithmi Mean Divisia Index)对碳 排放总量进行因素分解。将影响因素分为碳因子效应、能源结构效应、能源强度效 应、产业结构效应、经济规模效应。对结果进行分析得出促进天津市物流业碳排放 增长的主要影响因素以及抑制碳排放增长的主要影响因素。最终得出经济规模效应 是促进碳排放增加的最重要因素，能源强度效应是有效抑制碳排放增加的因素。 最后，根据天津市物流业碳排放因素分解结果并结合天津市的实际情况，从如 何有效控制令碳排放持续增长的因素及如何更好的发挥抑制因素作用的角度出发， 提出降低天津市物流业碳排放的相关策略，并从政府层面提出相应的保障措施。 关键词：物流业碳排放，LMDI，因素分解 I II II Abstract Along with the development of economy, energy consumption increased year by year, the environmental pollution is more and more serious. Industrial carbon emissions are the highest, the logistics industrys carbon emissions are in the second place, the consumption of energy is given priority to with high carbon energy sources such as oil. Low carbon logistics are mentioned by more and more countries. The carbon emissions of the logistics industry has great realistic significance and theoretical significance. Tianjin is one of the national low-carbon urban pilot, so taking Tianjin city as an example to study urban carbon emissions of the logistics industry. To effectively reduce Tianjin logistics industrys carbon emissions, it is very important to find the influence factors of carbon emissions. Firstly in this paper, the logistics industry in Tianjin in 1995-2010 carbon emissions for each year is calculated, and the measured results were analyzed. Then using LMDI factor decomposition method to decompose carbon emissions factors. Influence factors can be divided into carbon factor effect, energy structure effect and energy intensity effect, industrial structure effect and economies of scale effect. And find the main influence factors that increase carbon emissions and suppress the carbon emissions of Tianjin logistics industry. Finally，we get the result that economic scale effect