全球股市和固收市场展望.pdf

Fundamental Equity 2nd Quarter 2017 Global Equity Outlook Checking the Transmission Last quarter, we shared our view that the change in the US administration could lead to pro- growth policies with significant implications for equity investors (1Q2017 Global Equity Outlook: From Low Growth to Pro-Growth). Since then, optimism on the economy has indeed soared, but we believe it needs to be converted into confidence to ignite corporate “animal spirits”. In this quarterly outlook, we explore transmission mechanisms, potential headwinds, and mileposts that may indicate this transition is underway. „ We maintain a positive outlook for equities based on earnings growth. Global growth and earnings forecasts are trending upward in all major regions for the first time since 2010. US equities have reached all-time highs and valuations are expensive in many regions globally, reflecting investor and business optimism about the potential for pro-growth policies that could support further economic and earnings growth (p. 2). „ Optimism now needs to convert to confidence in order to turn sentiment into action, generating real business activity and maintaining