【毕业论文】胶南市土地利用土地覆被变化及驱动力研究论文.docVIP

本科毕业设计(论文) 题 目：胶南市土地利用/土地覆被变化及驱动力研究 学 院： 师范学院 专 业： 地理科学 姓 名： 指导教师： 年 5月 18 日 胶南市土地利用/土地覆被变化及驱动力研究 摘 要 通过各种数学指标对胶南市土地利用/土地覆被的变化进行了分析研究，然后用SPSS软件进行相关分析和主成分分析，寻找影响土地利用/土地覆被变化的驱动因子。研究发现影响土地利用/土地覆被变化的驱动因子主要是主要有国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值、农业人口比重、非农业人口比重等，涉及到人口、城镇化水平、经济发展、产业结构优化、农业生产条件等几个方面。最后运用马尔柯夫模型预测了胶南市未来十年的土地利用情况，发现除居民点工矿用地外其它各类用地都不同程度地减少，尤其是农业用地。未来十年农业用地（耕地、园地、林地、其它农用地）将会减少1983.82公顷，其中耕地将会减少456.06公顷。因此必须以分析的影响胶南市土地利用/土地覆被变化的驱动因子为依据，有的放矢的加大耕地保护力度。 关键词 土地利用/土地覆被变化 驱动力 相关分析 主成分分析 马尔柯夫模型 胶南市 Research on Land Use and Cover Change and Its Driving Forces in Jiaonan City ABSTRACT Land use and cover change in Jiaonan City is analyzed through various mathematical indexes. And then by SPSS software, correlation analysis and principal component analysis are carried on to find the driving factors that influence land use and land cover change. Through the analysis, it is found that the main driving factors are GDP, per capita GDP, the proportion of agricultural population and the proportion of non-agricultural population. These factors are related to population, urbanizational level, economic development, industrial structure optimization, agricultural production conditions and so on. Finally the land-use status of Jiaonan City in the coming ten years is forecasted by the application of Markov Model, and results show that except residential, industrial and mining land, other various patterns of land will decrease in different degree, especially agricultural land. In the next ten years, agricultural land (including cultivated land, garden land, forest land and other agricultural land) will reduce by 1983.82 hectares, among which the cultivated land will reduce by 456.06 hectares. Therefore, according to the driving factors analyzed in this thesis, it is necessary to make a definite objective and take more effective and positive