气候变化和水库运行对径流影响定量研究.docVIP

气候变化和水库运行对径流影响定量研究 　　摘要：将流域水循环模型SWAT模型和区域气候模型RegCm3进行单向耦合，构建流域水循环综合模拟平台，并在澜沧江上中游地区进行了应用。分别考虑气候变化（温度、降水）和水库运行的影响，通过与天然情景进行对比分析，定量研究了气候变化和水库运行在下游径流变化中所占的比重。结果表明：未来20年内，无论是气候变化还是水库运行都将导致澜沧江下游径流减少，其中气候变化的贡献率则达到88%，而水库运行的贡献率仅占12%，气候变化是造成澜沧江下游径流减少的最主要原因。而在气候变化的因子中，温度变化的贡献率占到81%，降水变化的贡献率仅为19%，因此温度是造成径流变化的所有因子中最重要的影响因子。水库运行对下游径流的影响主要体现在年内变化上，即“削峰补枯”作用，而对年际变化的影响不明显。 　　关键词：气候变化;人类活动;SWAT模型;区域气候模型RegCm3;澜沧江 　　中图分类号：P333文献标志码：A文章编号： 　　1672-1683（2015）01-0029-05 　　Quantitative research on the effects of climate change and human activity on runoff 　　BI Yan-jie，ZHAO Yong，XIAO Wei-hua，WU Di，ZHOU Xiang-nan，ZHANG Shou-ping 　　（State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin， 　　China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100038，China） 　　Abstract：The basin water cycle model SWAT and regional climate model RegCm3 were coupled to develop the comprehensive simulation platform of basin water cycle，which was applied in the upper and middle reaches of the Lancang-Mekong River.Compared with the natural conditions，the effects of climate change （temperature and precipitation）and reservoir operation on the runoff in the lower reach were investigated quantitatively.The results showed that both climate change and reservoir operation can decrease the runoff in the lower reach of the Lancang-Mekong River in the next twenty years，with the contribution rate of 88% from climate change while 12% from reservoir operation.Climate change is the main reason to cause the decreasing of runoff in the lower reach，with the contribution rate of 81% from temperature variation while 19% from precipitation variation.Consequently，temperature is the most important factor to affect the runoff in the lower reach of the Lancang-Mekong River.The effects of reservoir operation on the runoff had significant variations within a year，but insignificant variations between different years. 　　Key words：climate change;human activity;SWAT model;regional climate model R