《甘南州草地时空变化过程与驱动力定量研究.docxVIP

PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 1 甘南州草地时空变化过程与驱动力定量研究 摘要 近年来，我国国民经济日益提升，人口不断增加，在社会各方面都取得了长足的发展，但是在发展的过程中也存在诸多问题，其中占中国国土面积41%的草地所遇到的问题越来越受人们的关注。 本次以甘南藏族自治州为研究区, 对研究区及附近的气象站点的温度和降水数据进行空间差值，分析甘南州降雨量和气温的空间分布及变化趋势。采用MOD17A3数据估算实际NPP，基于Thornthwaite纪念模型模拟气候变化导致的潜在NPP,采用残差分析法分离人类活动导致的NPP变化,进一步分析其变化的趋势，评价2000-2010年11年间气候变化和人类活动对甘南草地变化的相对作用。研究结果表明: 研究区年均温和年降水量均呈现出波动上升趋势（0.39℃·10 a-1，46.6 mm·10a-1），气温上升的速率明显高于降水上升的速率。 在整个区域的尺度上，甘南地区草地的面积地在2000到2010年近11年间呈现出了微弱增长的趋势；但是与此同时草地恢复面积比例为13%,草地退化面积比例为30%，退化区面积明显高于覆盖度增长的面积。覆盖度退化的区域主要分布在甘南碌曲县、夏河县西南边缘、玛曲县东北部， 少量零星的分布在迭部县和卓尼县。增长区域主要分布在玛曲县西南部，夏河县有少量分布。草地面积有所增加，但质量处在下降地趋势。 在11年间，人类活动和气候变化对草地生长的贡献率分别为29%和71%，人类活动对草地影响整体来说是负面的，气候变化对研究区草地的影响是正面的。 关键词：MODIS；草地；时空变化； Quantitative study on spatial and temporal variation process and driving force of grassland in Gannan prefecture Abstract：In recent years, Chinas national economy rising, Growing population, All sectors of society have made considerable development, But there are many problems in the process of development. The problems encountered by the grassland, which accounts for 41% of the countrys land area, are getting more and more attention. The Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture as the study area, the spatial difference of temperature and precipitation data of meteorological stations in and around Gannan Autonomous Prefecture was carried out, and the spatial distribution and variation trend of rainfall and temperature in Gannan Prefecture were analyzed. Using the MOD 17A3 data to estimate the actual NPP, based on the Thornthwaite memorial model to simulate the potential NPP caused by climate change, the residual analysis method is used to separate the NPP changes caused by human activities, and to further analyze the trend of the changes. To evaluate the relative effects of climate change and human activities on grassland change in Gannan from 2000 to 2010. The results show: (1)Average annual precipitation was moderate in the study area were shown a rising trend fluctua