北京市能源竞争预测分析及电力可持续发展策略研究-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

华北电力大学硕士学位论文 摘 要 本文是关于北京市能源需求预测分析竞争策略以及电力可持续发展策略的研究。北 京市作为巾国的首都，是全国的政治 文化中心和国际交往的重要窗口 。随着2008 年申 奥的成功，北京电力的可靠性、优质性，经济性以及可持续发展等问题，也问益成为世 界的焦点。本文主要研究北京市的电力发展在诸多能源竞争中如何占有并保持 一个有利 地位，同时充分发挥清洁电力的特性，为电力管理部门规划 l电力发展提供对策和参考。 本文共分七章，一到五章主要是北京市能源需求和预测的分析，从小找的北京市电 力市场的缺陷和不足:建模过程中，主要应用了灰色系统理论和统计回归预测方法。 六、七章主要是通过北京市电力与其他能源的横纵向比较 p 找出北京市电力发展 的 不足和潜力，结合市场营销的理论 3 提出-些相应的解决方法，同时也为北京市能源竞 争中的电力发展提供了一些参考 。 关键词:能源需求，预测分析， 层次分析法，竞争策略，电力营销 ABSTRACT This paper 1S about the study on forecast and anaJys;s of energy demand 剑】d the competit?on and strategy of ìn Beijing. Beijing is Chinas capital now ，and is a national and political culture center with the lmportant window way of intemational activities. Along with success of the bid for the 2008 01ympics g缸nes，the problen1s become the worlds focus; one of problen1 1S dependable ，high-quality ，economic sustainablc development of electric pow町. This thesis prüna时ly solves the electric power of Beijing the developments in many cnergies market ，how to can QCCupy and keep a beneficial position，to dìstr?bute the character?stic that flick electric powers c1ean，supply for department of electric some suggestions . This paper totalJy ís divided jnto seven analysis，ftrst to fifth chapters primari1y is cnergy need and forecasting，and find out the Bcijing electric power markets drawbacks; the process of the set up mold ，and primarily applied thc gray system theories and statìstìcs of retun1ing theories to predict the future. Six，seven chapters primarily compare the electric power energy with the other energies in Beijing，and find out th巳 shorting and potcntial aspccts of electric power in Beijing ， combinates with market theories，bring up somc soIution of lnethod ，a1so provide some advices which competes among the development of electric power in Beijing . Key word: energy demand analysis ，forecast ，AHP ，competition strategy，the power market Peng Peng(Technìque econonly and managent) Directed by prof.Niu Dongxiao 声明 本人郑重声明:此处所提交