农业机械化和农民收入关系研究.docVIP

农业机械化和农民收入关系研究 　　摘 要：利用面板单位根、协整检验方法和面板误差纠正模型，根据中国30个省份1978―2007年的面板数据，对农业机械化与农民收入的关系进行实证研究，结果表明：农业技术进步与农民收入间存在长期均衡关系。从短期来看，东部地区存在从农民收入到农业机械化的单向因果关系，中部地区和西部地区不存在任何方向的因果关系；从长期来看，东部和西部地区存在农业机械化和农民收入的双向因果关系，而中部地区存在从农业机械化到农民收入的单向因果关系。国家在制定相关的政策时，要从技术进步对农民增收的长期效应入手，并且要综合考虑各个地区农业机械化与农民收入间不同的因果关系。?? 　　关键词：农业机械化；农民收入；农业技术进步；农民增收；面板误差纠正模型?? 　　中图分类号：F232.3 文献标志码：A文章编号：1674-8131（2011）03-0018-08?? 　　 　　??Research on the Relationship between??Agricultural Mechanization and Peasant’s Income ?? 　　― Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China 　　XU Guang??yue?? 　　(Institute of Industrial Economics and Rural Development, School of Economics, Henan University, Henan Kaifeng 475004, China)?? 　　Abstract: By using the panel unit root, co??integration test and panel??based error correction models, according to provincial panel data of 30 provinces and municipalities of China during 1978??2007, this paper makes empirical studies on the relationship between agricultural mechanization and peasants’ income, the results show that there is long??run equilibrium relationship between agricultural technical progress and peasants’ income, that from short??term view, there is unidirectional causality from peasants’ income to agricultural mechanization in the east region, however, there is no any causality in any direction in the middle and west region, and that from long??term view, there is bidirectional causality between agricultural mechanization and peasants’ income in the east and west region, however, there is unidirectional causality from agricultural mechanization to peasants’ income in the middle region. When making relative policies, Chinese Government should start with technical progress to highlight long??term effect of peasants’ income growth and comprehensively consider different causalities in different regions between agricultural mechanization and peasants’ income. ?? 　　Key words: agricultural mechanization; income of the farmers; agricultural technical