我国台风灾害成因分析及灾情预估-自然灾害学报.PDF

18 1 V o.l 18, No. 1 2009 2 JOURNA L OF NATURAL D ISA STER S F eb. , 2009 : 2009) 1 1 2 3 陈佩燕, 杨玉华 , 雷小途 , 钱燕珍 1. /, 200030; 2. , 200030; 3. , 3150 12) : 1980- 2004, ), : ATD I , , , ATD I 2005 6 : , 1 83% ~ 96% 50% ) : ; ; ; : TD 713+ 2; N 949 : A Cau se analy sis and prelim inary hazard estim ate of typhoon disaster in Ch ina 1 1 2 3 CHEN P eiyan , YANG Y uhua , LE I X iaotu , Q IAN Y anzhen 1. ShanghaiT yphoon In stitute/K ey Open Laboratory of T yphoon Forecast T echn ique, CM A, Shangh ai 200030, C h ina; 2. C lmi ate Cen ter of Sh anghai M eteorology Bu reau, Shanghai 200030, Ch ina; 3. N ingboM eteorology Bu reau, N ingbo 3150 12, C h ina) Abs tract: M ain m eteoro log ical factors for disaster cau sed by landfa lling trop ical cyc lones in Ch ina are ana lyzed based on sam ples form ed dur ing 1980 - 2004. It is shown that the degree o f disaster has strong relation w ith precip itation, gale, and landfalling in tensity and position po int of typhoon, et al. In detail, ATD I, an index to describe the degree of d isaster caused by typhoon, and econom ic lost are h ighly correlative w ith ga le, precipitation, landfall ing intensity, and m ov ing speed of typhoon. D am aged and co llap sed hou ses are m ainly begot by gale. A nd flooded farm land is m ostly begot