网络舆情演化机理多维建模和仿真研究.docVIP

网络舆情演化机理多维建模和仿真研究 　　〔摘 要〕 [目的/意义]研究网络舆情演化的多维度模型，从更高视角解读网络舆情传播规律，丰富和完善网络舆情传播理论。[方法/过程]定量分析网络舆情趋势预测中信息增长率的变化问题，构建以增长率和时间为自变量，信息累计数量为因变量的多维函数模型，并通过MATLAB仿真研究各个参数对网络舆情传播的影响以及网络舆情传播路径分析，然后通过“成都女司机”微博数据验证了模型的可行性，更加直观地诠释了高维模型研究网络舆情演化机理的优势。[结论/结果]经过理论建模和实证分析得出，将logistic模型拓展到高维研究网络舆情演化机理是可行的，并且多维度模型很好地解释了网络舆情数据出现多个“峰值”现象，而网络舆情统计数据的实质是高维度模型曲线在时间轴的投影。 　　〔关键词〕网络舆情；Logistic模型；演化机理；仿真分析；实证分析；大数据 　　DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2017.08.008 　　〔中图分类号〕 G206 〔文献标识码〕A 〔文章编号〕1008-0821（2017）08-0057-08 　　〔Abstract〕This paper studied the multidimensional model of network public opinion evolution，interpreted the law of network public opinion from a higher angle，and enriched the theory of network public opinion communication. Quantitative studied the change of information growth rate during network public opinion trends forecast，constructed a multidimensional function model that the rate of growth and time were the independent variables，and the cumulative number of information was the dependent variable. Then studied the effect of various parameters on the network public opinion dissemination and its path through MATLAB simulation，verified the feasibility of the model by analysis of the “Chengdu female driver” microblog data，and illustrated the advantages of the high dimensional model to study the mechanism of network public opinion. Through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis，it was feasible to extend the Logistic model to higher dimensional research of network public opinion evolution mechanism. The multidimensional model explained the phenomenon of appearing more “peak” in network public opinion data，and the essence of network public opinion statistics was the projection of the high dimensional model curve in the time axis. 　　〔Key words〕 network public opinion；logistic model；evolution mechanism；simulation analysis；empirical analysis；big data 　　1 ?F状分析 　　根据第39次中国互联网络发展状况统计报告（CNNIC），截至2016年12月，我国网民规模达7.31亿，互联网普及率为53.2%，其中手机网民规模达6.95亿，网民中使用手机上网的比例为95.1%[1]。随着移动宽带互联网的普及，网民可以通过