房地产开发企业投资风险评价研究-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

房地产开发企业投资风险评价研究 THE RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT RISK APPRAISAL OF REAL ESTATE EXPLOITATION ENTERPRISE ABSTRACT The tide of reformation and opening of China make the real estate industry develop swift, and the real estate industry is on the way of standardization as the basic and pioneering industry, at the same time，it can promote the progress of relative industry and the whole national economy. The demand about exploitation of real estate has been improving as the economy develops swift, and the city construction spreads cosmically, so it has a good space to exploit the real estate further. However, we must realize that the risk and return are always together, and especially in this time of our chinese economy transferring, it is true that the real estate market runs overmuch, so the risk must be one of the factors which real estate exploiters should consider. With the background of financial crisis nowadays, this paper appraises risk of overall process in real estate investment from the view of exploiters. Firstly, the paper expatiates some relative conception; then, based on that, the paper designs risk indexes system of real estate exploiters’ investment from new point of view; finally, the paper uses entropy weight and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to appraise the investment risk of real estate exploiters, which can direct the real estate investment effectively. KEY WORDS：real estate exploitation enterprise，risk indexes system，investment risk appraisal II 河北工业大学硕士学位论文 第一章 绪论 §1-1 研究背景及意义 研究背景 随着我国经济实力的稳步增长，房地产行业也逐步成为影响国家经济和社会安定的支柱性产业，国 家战略目标的实现很大程度上受其发展的影响。从宏观经济的层面讲，房地产业是一个关联度很高的产 业，它的发展与近五十多个产业部门相联系；从政府的层面讲，政府无论是制定财政政策还是货币政策， 都必须将房地产发展的特点纳入到考虑范畴之内；从普通居民的层面讲，房地产业能否健康发展直接影 响到人民是否安居乐业的实际问题[1]。 2008 年以来，在美国次贷危机的导引下，全球范围内都爆发了金融危机，各个国家的很多领域都 被牵扯进来，我国的房地产市场也不例外。我国政府为应对金融危机，也推出了一些关于房地产市场的 税收、利率、信贷的政策，想以此来激活房地产业发展，但从 2007 年至今，我国房地产市场持续低迷， 基本进入了周期性调整阶段，主要表现在：房屋销售额与销售面积大幅下降，“滞涨”现象逐步加剧； 房地产商背后风险潜存，资金链压力加大；群众对房市持消极态度，由此形成的社会压力越来越大等。 由此看来，在当前形势下，房地产开发企业的投资行为面临着很大的风险，而分析我国房地产市