城市群道路网络系统可靠性研究-交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 随着社会经济的发展，城市之间的经济、政治、商贸、旅游等行业的联系越来 越紧密，各个城市之间不断传递着客流、货流、信息流等，逐渐形成了区域性城市 化现象。城市群以经济、政治等因数为动力，以交通运输为支撑，应运而生。 本文首先分析了城市群及其道路网络的特性，然后从常见的城市道路网络连通 可靠性、时间可靠性、容量可靠性三个方面，分析目前常用的蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo） 算法、时间参数标定法以及割集算法，探讨其实用条件，最后结合城市道路网络和 城市群道路网络的具体特性，提出从网络拓扑结构连通可靠度、网络结构重要性和 关键弧分析以及网络失效弹性分析三个方面综合评价城市群道路网络可靠性，并加 以算例说明。 本文研究城市群道路网络的可靠性，把城市群道路网络看作是一个系统，把道 路网络的一些基本路段、聚散点看作是系统的基本单元，运用系统工程相关理论， 采用 CNS-CS 方法、Birnbaum 结构度分析法以及无标度网络分析法，分析路网的可 靠性，研究系统单元的灵敏度，从而评价网络系统的抗风险能力以及网络的再生能 力，为决策者提出路网建设项目实施排序的最佳方案，优化其网络结构，提高道路 网络的整体可靠性，从而更好的保障城市群的健康发展。 关键词：系统工程 可靠性 灵敏度 抗风险能力 再生能力 城市群 Abstract With the development of the social economy, the relation of economy, polity, commerce, junketing and so on between the cities are becoming more and more closed, later, a common phenomenon of the urbanization is coming into being in some regional areas whose flow of the passengers、goods flow、information and so on is been transferred much more than ever，last, urban agglomeration is coming into being in with the political and other factors as the driving force and the transportation as the sustentation. Firstly, this paper analyzes the urban agglomeration and the road network characteristics, secondly, we analyze the commonly used Monte Carlo Algorithm, Time Parameter Calibration Algorithm and Cut Node Set Produce Cut Set Algorithm from the three sides of urban network connectivity reliability, time reliability, capacity reliability, then, we analyze the reliability of the urban agglomeration road network from three aspects of the network topology reliability, the importance of network structure and network analysis and critical failure of arc elasticity, also ,we make a numerical example. In this paper, we consider the urban road network as a system, and some roads and traffic hinge as the basic unit of the system, use the theory of systems engineering method to analysis of network reliability and the sensitivity of the system unit by CNS-CS method, Birnbaum Structure Analysis method and Scale-Free