房价上涨的基础支撑面分析及房地产市场风险预警研究-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

浙江工业大学硕士学位论文 房价上涨的基础支撑丽分析及房地产市场风险预警研究 v v |t 1u圳j础圳j!141川川1川1川1川阳l川1川l川1阳1圳1j圳|川114W1叶川1l1圳1山州1月j1哪姐山哪姐山l 1u 摘要 本文首先从房地产需求方面着手，通过Gr anger 检验分析了房价 上涨与其基础支撑面的动态因果关系，结果表明我国城市化进程的加 速和居民可支配收入的提高为住宅市场提供了大量的刚性需求。紧接 着，本文又从房地产供给方面入手，重点分析了 35 个大中城市房地 产投资与房价的因果关系，找到了部分城市房价非理性上涨的证据。 通过两者的结合分析，最终发现北京、上海、杭州等城市房价非理性 上涨态势主要是基于与投资扩张(预期收益、投机)间形成的iE反馈 机制所致的，其房地产市场已经聚集了大最的泡沫。 在此基础上，本文结合突变理论，创新性地构建了城市房地产市 场风险预警突变模型:然后以 35 个大中城市房地产市场具体运行数 据为基础，计算了各城市房地产市场风险预警值及历年风险值，并从 时间和空间两个维度归纳了中国房地产市场的风险轨迹与地域差异， 即房地产市场泡沫集聚田正在逐步扩大，并巳有形成房地产市场区域 风险由东部向中西部扩散的迹象。 本文的创新之处在于:首先，抓住影响房地产价格的最基本因素， 通过统计检验找到了部分城市房价非理性上涨的证据。其次，提出了 城市房地产市场风险预警突变模型，探讨并挖掘出突变理论应用在房 地产预警上的可能性和合理性。其最大的优势在于无需确定各指标的 具体权章，较大程度地越免了:ì观因素的干扰。 关键词z 房价，基础支撑丽，预瞥，突变理论 浙江工业大学顺士学位论文 房价上涨的慕础支撑面分析及房地产市场风险预警研究 ANALYSIS OF THE SUPPORTING BASES OF HOUSING PRICE AND RESEARCH ON EARLY WARNING OF URBAN REAL ESTATE ABSTRACT This article started 企om the hOusing demand and analyzed the dynamic relatiOnshíp between the rising hOuse price and its suppOrting bases. The results shOwed that the acceleratiOn Of urbanizati On and the increωe Of dispOsable incOme prOvided plenty Of rigid demand. Next，仕mO the aspect OfhOusing supply，the artícle ，，喝足3Azf#analyzed the relatiOnshíp between the real estate ínvestments and hOuse price Of 35 typical cítíes，and fOund the evidences that several cities h ，，喝足3Azf# irratiOnal1y. COmbining the twO results abOve，让was fOund that the irratiOnal rise Of these cities hOuse price was mainly caused by the pOsítive feedback mechanism which based On ínvestment expansiOn (expected return，speculatiOn). Based On the CatastrOphe TheOry，由e article cOnstructed the early waming mOdel Of unban real estate，and calculated the risk value and the waming value Of 35 typical cities. Then，The risk 衍ack Of real estate and geOgraphícal differences were cOncluded systematícally 企om time and space. In the p邸t few years，the prOperty bubble was expanding and spreading 仕om the east regiOn tO the mi