摩根司坦利对小灵通的市场分析解析（英文版）.pdf

In-Depth Page 1 Equity Research Asia/Pacific Industry The China Telecom Monitor Lina Choi Industry Overview Issue 3, January 29, 2002 +852 2848 6782 Lina.Choi@ Hani Abuali Little Smart – A Curse or a +852 2848 7205 Hani.Abuali@ Mark Shuper Blessing? +852 2848 5447 Mark.Shuper@ KEY RATINGS • PHS operations appear to be enhancing China Telecom’s profitability As PHS equipment prices decline (down 50% on our estimates) and China Mobile (HK) Equal-Weight (0941.HK, HK$19.05) Target: HK$21.40 users generate unit revenues similar to those for fixed line, we believe China Unicom Equal-Weight-V PHS adds incremental value to China Telecom. (0762.HK, HK$5.8) Target: HK$5.60 • Regulator is adopting more of a “hands-off” approach China Telecom Overweight-V Preoccupied with its own transition between one minister and another, (0728.HK, HK$1.70) Target: HK$1.70 and with an increasing focus on fully liberalized market competition, the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) has not intervened in PHS’s encroachment into larger provincial cities – a move previously forbidden by the regulator. • All ducks are in a row for PHS to grow like a weed – but there are still limitations