中国大陆可能的膳食消费水平与粮食需求量——基于中国台湾.PDFVIP

中国工程科学 2018年 第20卷 第5期 DOI 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2018.05.020 中国大陆可能的膳食消费水平与粮食需求量 ——基于中国台湾的历程判断 辛良杰 （中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101 ） 摘要：中国台湾居民的食物消费演变对中国大陆具有较好的借鉴价值。根据中国台湾的发展情况，中国大陆居民的膳食消费 总量可能会在2026 年左右达到峰值状态，水果、肉类、蛋类、水产品、乳类、油脂等高附加值食品的消费量也相应达到峰值， 人均膳食消费总量与粮食消费量可分别达到563 kg 与456 kg ；到2035 年膳食消费结构达到基本稳定状态，人均膳食消费总 量与粮食消费量可分别达到499 kg 与412 kg 。由此可知，中国大陆居民的膳食消费还有较大的提升潜力，对中国有限的水 土资源还将产生较长时间的持续压力。 关键词：中国台湾；中国大陆；膳食消费；粮食需求量 中图分类号：F307.11 文献标识码：A Prediction of Food Consumption and Grain Demand in Chinese Mainland Xin Liangjie (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China) Abstract: Now consumption of main food in Taiwan of China has been stable. It is most likely that Chinese Mainland will follow the progressive path of food consumption in Taiwan of China. The total dietary consumption of Chinese Mainland residents will reach the summit around 2026, so will the consumption of food with high added values, such as fruit, meat, egg, aquatic products, dairy prod- ucts, and oil. Total dietary consumption will be 563 kg per capita, and grain consumption will be 456 kg per capita. The structure of dietary consumption will reach a table state by 2035, and total dietary consumption and grain consumption will be 499 kg per capita and 412 kg per capita, respectively. Dietary consumption of Chinese Mainland residents has great potentials for promotion, which will exert long and continuous pressure on China’s limited land and water resources. Keywords: Taiwan of China; Chinese Mainland; dietary consump