供热燃料的综合评价-建筑与土木工程专业论文.docx

Classified Index: TU831.1 U.D.C.: 628.8 Dissertation for the Master Degree in Engineering COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF HEATING SOURCES FUELS Candidate: Supervisor: Academic Degree Applied for: Speciality: Affiliation： Date of Defence: Degree-Conferring-Institution: Cui Jiuli Vice Prof. Ma Shijun Master of Engineering Architecture and Civil Engineering Changchun Institute of Technology Jun 2009 Harbin Institute of Technology 哈尔滨工业大学工程硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学工程硕士学位论文 -I- -I- 摘 要 随着经济的飞速发展，各大小城市的供热事业蓬勃发展，同时能源与环境 问题已被各国作为首要解决难题。本文在能源紧张和当今环境要求的前提下， 针对我国现存的能源及特点，结合几种最普遍供热形势，以多层次理论分析法 结合灰色物元法为数学方法，各评价方案的指标量化最优值为目标，在以经 济、社会、环境、技术、节能率等指标为主体的评价体系里进行综合评价，从 而得到最优的热源燃料及其最佳的使用方式。 经济评价指标主要包括初投资和运行费用，在初步计算结果的基础上采用 货币的时间价值理论，得到各评价方案的单位面积年耗费用。 社会评价指标是指国家对各评价方案的政策优惠程度及方案的安全程度， 技术评价指标涉及工艺的先进性，技术的成熟可靠性，用户的适用性，该技术 的自动化程度；节能率是洁净煤技术节约能源消耗的特性。以上三个指标均采 用多层次理论中的权重函数进行赋值量化。 环境评价指标主要将燃料燃烧释放的对环境造成污染的排出物作为指标， 通过层次分析法将污染物造成的损失逐步量化，得到最优方案。 本文还对煤进行敏感度分析，计算得出煤的含灰量和含硫量变化，导致价 格和环境因素变化后的综合评价值。评价方法及评价结果，对于热源燃料的选 择及其最佳的使用方式，提供了一定的参考。 关键词：供热燃料；综合评价；环境因素；敏感度分析 -II- -II- Abstract Heating industry of every city is developing with the economic growth, at the same time energy sources and environment had been as the first problem. At the precondition like this, this paper aim at current character of our country and construct of energy, link to the best prevalent heating forms, adopt grey element analysis and hiberarchy analysis as the mathematical method, the total strong point of each contrast project as the objective function, then comprehensive evaluate in the target system of taking economy, social, entironment, technology and energysaving as main body, at last get the best heat souce fuel and its best eligible use method. The economical analysis includes two main factors: total investment and operating expense. On the basis of the former results, this paper adopt capital time value theory, and achive the total expense per year piece area. The social analysis is the preferential policy of our country and the safe deg