工科高校数学学院大学生学业状况统计分析-应用数学专业论文.docx

工科高校数学学院大学生学业状况统计分析 摘要 在一个全民关注高考的时代，高考到底仅仅是进入高等教育的一块敲门砖， 还是会对学生大学学习成绩产生深远影响，也是众人关注的焦点，因此就产生了 伴随着高等教育发展的各项教育评估工作。众多的教育工作者紧紧围绕高考成 绩、大学生在校成绩、学生在校综合素质、学生毕业后的个人发展等等方面开展 个各种定量与定性的教育评估工作，系统阐述了高考成绩对学生进入高等教育以 后后续发展的影响等问题。 高考成绩作为衡量学生在高中阶段学习情况的一个重要指标，本文通过对合 肥工业大学数学学院 06 级毕业生的高考成绩与本科期间在校成绩进行统计分析 研究，发现高考成绩对在校的各学期成绩有较大的相关性，且高考成绩对大学成 绩的影响随着学期的后移而逐渐减弱，同时这种相关性因专业的不同而不同，进 一步研究发现不同类型的课程成绩与高考成绩有着不同的相关性。在此基础上， 建立了部分代表性课程与高考成绩、已学课程成绩之间的线性回归模型，并进行 分析。 另外，本文对均值变点估计问题，给出了变点的累积和型估计，并利用 EViews 软件，分别对总体上证指数数据和变点之后的数据建立状态空间模型，通过比较 预测结果的绝对百分比误差（APE），得出基于变结构的分段数据所建立的模型， 其预测效果较好的结论。 关键词：高考成绩、相关性分析，线性模型，回归分析；股票指数；状态空间模 型； Statistical Analysis of University Students’ Grades in School of Mathematics ABSTRACT In an era that the whole people pay attention to the university entrance examination, it is a focus problem that university entrance examination is a stepping-stone leading to Higher Education or has a far-reaching influence on students’ academic records at university. So the education evaluation work is produced along with the development of higher education. Many educators carry out a variety of quantitative and qualitative education evaluation work revolved around students university entrance exam scores, school performance, comprehensive quality, personal development after graduation and so on, systematically expound the problems that university entrance exam scores influence on the subsequent development of students entering the higher education. Since university entrance exam scores is an important indicator to measure students learning in high school. According to students university entrance exam scores and their undergraduate level of 06 class graduates in Hefei University of Technology, this paper draws a conclusion that there is a correlation between students university entrance exam scores and their each semester grades, but this correlation weakens gradually as time goes on. At the same time, the correlation is different due to different HYPERLINK /s?wd=major majors. And further stu