数学建模-论文.doc

读万卷书 行万里路 For office use only Team Control Number For office use only T1 60365 F1 T2 F2 T3 Problem Chosen F3 T4 A F4 2017 MCM/ICM Summary Sheet A Multiple Dam System for the Zambezi River This paper aims to assess the cost and benefits of the three options interested by Zam-bezi River Authority (ZRA) in their efforts to ease the safety concern of the Kariba Dam, and to propose a feasible solution of Multiple Dam System (MDS) to water management problem on the Zambezi River. In the first part, to assess the three given solutions, repairing, rebuilding and replac-ing the dam with ten to twenty smaller dams namely, the paper draws lessons from the history and takes the financial cost, safety, time, effects on ecosystem and impacts on life of the locals under scrutiny. We find out that repairing the dam costs the least and has little negative impact on either the ecosystem or the life of locals while the hazardous risk of crumbling still remains. Rebuilding may be a safer solution but at the expense of higher cost and huge damage to the environment. Replacing strategy costs a lot too but can eradicate the risk brought up by the Kariba Dam. With our assessment, the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) now is able to take actions in terms of their needs. Then, we successfully find a MDS, which is of better water management capability to replace the Kariba Dam. Important factors such as water flow, population density, fall and stratigraphy are carefully researched via existing literature and the Internet to deter-mine the location and number of the dams in the system. The preliminary screening of the locations is run by recognizing topography of sites that are suitable for dam-building in the contour plot we generate. Then, with the introduction of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method, the priority of potential sites is determined. Finally, we suc-cessfully figure out the location and number of the dams in our system with a careful look on the equilibrium between safety a