基于GIS的长沙市肾综合征出血热时空分布及其风险因子研究-自然地理学专业论文.docxVIP

(3)HFRS风险因子研究：应用基于主成分分析的Logistic回归方法，去除回归模型中变量的多重共线性的影响，建立较为理想的HFRS (3)HFRS风险因子研究：应用基于主成分分析的Logistic回归方 法，去除回归模型中变量的多重共线性的影响，建立较为理想的HFRS 发病情况与相应地区的风险因子的Logistic回归模型，结果表明，影 响HFRS流行与传播的风险因子主要有：平均高程，年平均气温，耕 地占地面积，林地占地面积、建设用地占地面积以及水域占地面积。 结果表明：低海拔地区相对于高海拔地区容易发生HFRS，年平均气 温升高，可以抑制I-IFRS流行，林地面积越大，HFRS发生的概率越 小。耕地、建设用地、水域有利于HFRS的流行和传播，是I-IFRS流 行的危险因素。 总之，建立的时间序列模型预测精度较高，为未来HFRS发病率 的预测提供了方法；长沙市HFRS在空间上呈高聚集性分布；风险因 子不同程度上影响着HFRS的发生概率。研究结果对于认清长沙市 HFRS流行状况有重要意义。本研究为今后类似流行病的研究提供了 方法和途径。 关键字：肾综合征出血热，时空分析，风险因子，地理信息系统，长 沙 Ⅱ ABSTRACTHemorrhagic ABSTRACT Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(I-IFRS)，caused by Hantaviruses ffiv)，is characterized by fever,acute renal dysfunction and hemorrhage manifestations．It is one of the key infectious diseases harming people’s health and safety with wide distribution,high硫i出In∞ and complicated type of endemic areas in mainland China．naditional HFRS studies were mostly based on classical statistical analysis，ignoring the spatial information．Using Geographic Information System in epidemiological studies，the temporal and spatial distribution of HFRS and spatial risk factors could be studied quantitatively．Thus，prevention and control measures could be formulated more scientifically． With the help of GIS and basing on the cases of HFRS of recem years in Changsha,this study attempts to characterize the temporal and spatial distribution of HFRS in Changsha,and to find the risk白ctor of HFRS from the following three aspects： (1)Temporal distribution analysis：To forecast of the iIlcidence of HFRS from January to December of 2009 with the method of Time Series and the time series model of HFRS from the incidence of HFRS舶m 2005 to 2008．The result of the forecaster is very close to the actual data Ⅲ and and the model fits． (2)Spatial distribution analysis：usmg spatial cluster analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis，we investigated the spatial distribution of HFRS of each town in Changsha．The result of the spatial cluster analysis shows that HF