基于AIDS模型的我国农村居民消费结构的动态分析-人口与经济.PDF

2008 年第2 期 人 口与经 济 No. 2, 2008 ( 总第167期) POPULATION ECONOMICS (Tot. No. 167) 基于AIDS模型的我国农村居民消费结构的动态分析 , (兰州大 经济 院, 甘肃 兰州 730000) : AIDS , / 0 / 0 。, , 。; ; , 。 , , , , 。 : AIDS ; ; : F12611 : A : 1000- 1 9 ( 2008) 02- 003 - 05 A Dyn amic An alysis of Chinaps Rur al Residents. Con sumption Str uct ure Based on AIDS Model GUO Ai2jun, WU Guo2rong ( School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China) Abstract : Based on the AIDS model, the paper compares the dynamic characters of Chinese rural residents. consumption of seven major commodities during the Ninth and the Tenth Five2year Plan. The result shows that the rural residents. consumption will continue to rise, but the consumption pattern has changed dramatically. Expense on food keeps decreasing after the residents. basic need beingmet while expense on transportation and education will increase steadily. Along with the improvement of the rural medical service system, the consumption of medical and health care commodities will also increase in rural area. Due to the imparity of rural residents. consumption between different areas, the impact of such imparity on the estimations made must be considered when carrying out quantitative studies. Their differences of demand should also be stressed in the formulation of policies. Keywor ds: AIDSmodel; rural residents; Consumption pattern 、 随着国民经济的持续快速发展, 中国农村居民的收入水平不断提高。/ 十五0 期间, 农民人 均纯收入超过3000 元, 年平均增长率为717% 。特别值得关注的是后两年, 由于国家 / 多予、少 取、放活0 的方针, 农村居民人均纯收入增长率均超过10% , 与此同时, 占居民收入支出很大 : 2007- 11- 05 : 郭爱君 ( 196 - ) , 男, 湖北天门人, 兰州大 经济 院副教授, 博士, 研究方向为区域经济、中国行政发展。