基于KMV模型对地方政府融资平台贷款信用风险的实证研究-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 为应对 08 年金融危机，中国政府推出了 4 万亿投资的经济刺激计划，地方 政府为了筹集相关的配套资金，解决地方政府基础设施建设项目的资金供求矛 盾，地方政府融资平台发债量激增。然而地方政府融资平台在抵御金融危机、促 进政府投资、扩大内需、保证经济增长、为社会建设和经济发展做出巨大贡献的 同时，由于自身经营管理水平不高、监管不到位、项目盈利性弱等问题导致平台 债务的信用风险上升。地方政府融资平台的债务风险给中国的经济系统的稳定带 来了很大的风险。 以此为背景，文章使用现代信用风险度量模型，运用定量计量的方法，对 KMV 模型进行适度的改进，使之适合地方政府融资平台债务风险度量，并对河 北、河南、山西、陕西、天津、内蒙古的地方政府融资平台债务信用风险进行实 证分析。在对地方政府融资平台的信用风险进行测度的基础上，文章提出应对地 方融资平台债务风险的方法。需要正视地方政府融资平台的合理性，既要合理控 制地方政府融资平台的发债风险，又要保证平台公司持续促进地方经济发展，这 需要政府、银行和地方政府融资平台等各方的共同努力，并不断完善国家的相应 规章制度，以促进地方经济的可持续发展。 关键词：地方政府融资平台，信用风险，KMV 模型 Abstract Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the local government launched a proactive policy, for instance, building more infrastructures to prevent the decline of the domestic economy. China started an economic stimulus plan including a 4 trillion investment in 2009. In order to raise the matching funds, the local government established plenty of government financing platforms. Local government financing platforms greatly helped to resist the financial crisis, to promote the government investment, to expand the domestic demand and to keep the economic growth rate. They made a significant contribution to social and economic development. But the local government financing platforms also produced a large amount of credit risks because of its weak profitability, poor management and supervision. This has brought potential risks to the development of Chinas economic and finance system. In this context, the paper used modern financial theory, theoretical discussion and empirical analysis, comparative study, synthesis of a combination of research methods, from risk measurement methods and credit risk management theory based on the KMV model to local empirical analysis of credit risk. Finally, based on the above analysis, we draw a conclusion that the government can neither take local financing platform for laissez-faire, nor blindly restrict. It should be a reasonable and sustainable balance between controlled risk and economic development.