基于权马尔可夫链的宝鸡市年降水量状态预测.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2012,28(26):272-276 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 基于权马尔可夫链的宝鸡市年降水量状态预测 文彦君 （宝鸡文理学院/灾害监测与机理模拟陕西省重点实验室，陕西宝鸡721013） 摘 要：为了全面分析宝鸡市自然降水的时间分布规律和变化趋势，为该区域水资源预测、旱涝灾害防 治、水量调度和水资源管理提供依据，对宝鸡市年降水量状态进行了权马尔可夫链分析。针对降水过程 中的不确定和不精确性，采用均值-标准差分级法，将宝鸡市1956—2009 年降水量分为干旱、偏旱、正 常、偏涝、雨涝5 个状态。以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重，采用权马尔可夫链模型对宝鸡市未来年 份的降水量状态进行预测。平稳分析结果表明，宝鸡市多年降水过程中干旱、偏旱、正常、偏涝、雨涝等 5 种状态出现的概率分别为0.1305、0.2767、0.2751、0.2075、0.1101。宝鸡市未来多年降水过程中偏旱和 正常状态占优势，而雨涝出现概率较低，反映了该区域气候暖干化的长期变化。 关键词：权马尔可夫链；宝鸡市；年降水量状态 中图分类号：P467 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2012-1756 Prediction of Annual Precipitation Grade in Baoji City Based on Weighted Markov Chain WenYanjun (BaojiUniversityofArtsandSciences/KeyLaboratoryofDisasterMonitoringandMechanism SimulatingofShaanxiProvince,BaojiShaanxi721013) Abstract: Inordertomakeacomprehensiveanalysisonthetemporaldistributionregularityandvariation trend,providingscientificbasisforwaterresourceprediction,preventionandmitigationofflooddrought disaster,waterregulation,aswellaswaterresourcemanagement,theannualprecipitationgradeofBaojiwere analyzed by using weighted Markov chain. Considering the uncertainty and imprecision of precipitation process,theprecipitationnumbersofBaojifrom 1956to 2009 wereclassifiedinto 5 grades:drought,partial drought,normal,partialabundanceandabundance,byusingmean-standarddeviationclassificationmethod. Regardingstandardizedself-coefficientsasweights,theprecipitationgradesofthefutureyearsinBaojiwere predictedbyusingweightedMarkovchain.Analysisonstationarydistributionshowedthat,theprobabilitiesof 5 gradesabovewererespectively 0.1305, 0.2767, 0.2751, 0.2075, 0.1101.Thepartialdroughtandnormal gradesdominatedinthelong-t