供求视角下的我国国债风险研究ResearchonTreasuryRiskofChina.PDF

数量经济研究 The Journal of Quantitative Economics 第 3 卷 第 1 辑 VoL. 3. No.1 2012 年 3 月 March 2012 供求视角下的我国国债风险研究* 田新民 1 杨永恒 2 (1,首都经济贸易大学数量经济研究中心;2,北京市发展改革委员会,北京，10026) 摘要：历史经验表明如果政府发行过多国债就会对宏观经济产生不利影响。这种不利影响来自于两方 面，一是政府负债过多或结构不尽合理，诱发主权信用危机；二是过多的国债诱发通货膨胀，产生投资、 消费的挤出效应。从供给和需求的角度来看，前者可视为国债供给能力不足引致的风险，后者则可视为过 度需求产生的风险。本文从供求视角对我国国债风险进行研究，结果表明我国国债规模尚未达到宏观经济 效益最大化的最优规模，当前我国国债的风险主要是供给能力不足引致的风险。从这个意义上来说，当前 国债的发行规模取决于政府的偿债能力。 Research on Treasury Risk of China Based on Supply and Demand Abstract: Historical experience shows that it will have negative effects of macro-economy if the government issues excessive treasury. The effects come from two ways: Firstly, the sovereign credit crisis will be occurred if treasury is excessive or the structure is not reasonable; secondly, inflation will be induced if treasury is excessive. Meanwhile, crowding-out effect on investment and consumption will be generated. From the point of view based on supply and demand, the former can be seen as risk induced by shortage supply of treasury, while the latter can be seen as risk induced by excessive demand. In this paper, we do research from the point of view based on supply and demand. The result shows that the scale of treasury has not yet reached the optimal scale of the macro-economic benefits to maximize; current treasury risk is caused by lack of supply capacity. In this sense, the current scale of treasury bonds depends on the solvency of the government. Key Word: Treasury Risk; Credit Crisis; Crowding-out Effect; Solvency 1 国债风险的国内外研究综述 1.1 过度需求产生的宏观经济风险研究 发行国债是否会带来宏观经济风险一直是一个存在争议的话题。从经济理论来看：经济 学之父亚当•斯密认为国家举债是把国家一