台风路径潜势预报.PPT

* * 6 These flight hours include deployment time to and from forward operating locations. (Typically around 10-12% of our total flying time) Total flying hours for the season: 53WRS/1487 NOAA/536 The purple bars indicate the 53d’s flying hours for the last 10 years. The green line represents the 10-year average of 1117 hours for the 53rd, and you can see 2005, along with 1999, were the busiest in terms of flying hours the last 10 years, with flying hours increasing each of the last four years. NOAAs flying hours (blue bars) also increased significantly in 2005 with over 500 hours! I’m sure that some of that was due to their increased flight load during our reconstitution at Dobbins ARB, GA. For that extra effort we say thank you. It helped at a trying time. The 53rd continues to run an active public affairs program. Our busiest event is NHC’s annual Caribbean Hurricane Awareness Tour. (The photo above was taken by Frank Lepore at Ponce, Puerto Rico during last year’s CHAT). This year’s CHAT (traditionally in the middle of March) just returned from Mexico, Nicaragua, Curacao, Grenada, and Puerto Rico. Now that the J model is flying operationally and crews are trained, media flights will resume for the 2006 storm season. The squadron will also resume static displays at regional airshows, showing off our latest technology. Website: H continues to be a valuable source of information. * * 責任之目標 * 之決策也是風險 * 防範可能性 * 單一預報之問題!(不符合科學) 1.警報發布(圖、單)未包含路徑不確定性。 2.各地區風、雨預報,忽略路徑之不確定性。 ( 讓人誤以為今日科技上已有能力) 3.單一預報有誤差,不應為決策依據。成為決策依據,剝奪各級指揮官之決策權(己無其他選擇)。 4.再準也總會有誤差存在,當有巨災產生,必成為眾矢之的。(難道還要讓狀況再持續下去!?) 近5年美、日、台灣之24小時颱風路徑預報誤差狀況 2004年 2005年 2006年 2007年 2008年 莫拉克 台灣 120 km 95 km 101km 99 km 103 km 87 km 日本JMA 125 km 104 km 105 km 111 km 112 km 93 km 美國JTWC 130 km 104 km 104 km 100 km 103 km 91 km (單一)風雨預報的可靠度？ JTWC、NHC不提供各地風雨預報為決策依據 JMA僅提供即時資料供防災使用 風雨預報準確之先決條件 路徑正確？ 零誤差 結構、強度、移速正確？ 在無飛機穿越飛行資料的條件下, 零誤差 why ? 可能嗎? 差遠了! (單一)各地風雨預報 動力模式之預報 數值模式之預報，如果其路徑預報與主觀預報結果相近時