可持续发展管理的理论与实证研究中国环境演变驱动力分析管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

ABSTRACTABSTRACT ABSTRACT ABSTRACT To analyze the causes or driving forces of environmental change is the premise and foundation for sustainable development management．Based on related studies at home and abroad，we discussed the trajectory of environmental change along with economic development or over time，and the main driving forces and their variation tendency by stages；proposed a Systematic Concept Model involving various factors driving environmental change and their interactive relationship to study the driving forces of China’S environmental change；developed Natural Capital Consumption Index(Ncco to depict the tendency of China’S environmental change，and then combined with simplified Systematic Concept Model，an empirical analysis of the driving forces of China’S environmental change has been respectively conducted by using grey relation analysis for the period 1 990-2005 and by historical analysis methods for different periods since 1 949；Finally,we also proposed some countermeasures and suggestions to deal with China’S current environmental problems，combining with govemance theory and the main problems facing China’S traditional environmental management pattem．The main conclusions are as follows： Firstly,starting from IPAT identity,we have proved that environmental change process along with economic development or over time generally follow in sequence three inverted U shape curves in the long run，that is，the inverted．U shape curve of environmental impact intensity,environmental impact per capita，and total environmental impact respectively．According to three inverted U shape curves，the environmental change process can be divided into four stages，that is，stage before the peak of environmental impact intensity,stage between environmental impact intensity and environmental impact per capita，stage between environmental impaa per capita and total environmental impact,and stage behind total environmental impact． Secondl5 the leading driving forces are also