第1讲 经济学究什么.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * * * The success of a model is judged by its ability to predict. Help your student’s appreciate that no matter how appealing or “realistic looking” a model appears to be, it is useless if it fails to predict. And the converse, no matter how abstract or far removed from reality a model appears to be, if it predicts well, it is valuable. Milton Friedman’s pool hall example illustrates the point nicely. Imagine a physicist’s model that predicts where a carefully placed shot of a pool shark would go as he tries to sink the eight ball into the corner pocket. The model would be a comp