宏观经济专题讲义（一）.pdf

The economy in the short run Some facts about business cycles 1 14.1 Why understanding business cycles is important • The economic growth is repeatedly interrupted by recessions. – Recessions may develop into severe depressions paving the way for social and political disaster 2 Figure 14.1: The evolution of real GDP in some Western countries Source: See Table 14.2. 3 Figure 14.2: Unemployment and political extremism in Germany, 1924–1933 • The striking correlation between the unemployment rate and the vote to Nazi 4 Sources: Unemployment rate from B.R. Mitchell, International Historical Statistics, Europe 1750–1988, Macmillan, New York, 1993. Nazi vote share from Richard F. Hamilton, Who Voted for Hitler?, Princeton University Press, 1982. 14.1 Why understanding business cycles is important • For economist or economy students – Offer stabilization policy advice. – Avoid misguided policies that may amplifying the business cycles. 5 14.2 Defining business cycles • Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell: – Business cycles are a type of fluctuations found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: – A cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recession, contractions and revivals which merge into the expansi