决策管理导论(PPT 64页).ppt

学习目标2.5小结 识别有效的决策技术。 有效的决策过程有六个特点: (1)关注重点; (2)符合逻辑且前后一致; (3)认可主观和客观的思考,直觉思维与理性分析结合; (4)需要足够多的信息和分析以解决特殊问题; (5)鼓励和指导收集相关信息和富有见地的意见; (6)直接、可靠、易于采用而且灵活 学习目标2.5小结（续） 设计思维是“像设计师解决设计问题一样去解决管理问题”。 * * * * * * * * * * * * Some problems are straightforward. The decision maker’s goal is clear, the problem is familiar, and information about the problem is easily defined and complete. Such situations are called structured problems because they’re straightforward, familiar, and easily defined. Because it’s not an unusual occurrence, there’s probably some standardized routine for handling it. This is what we call a programmed decision, a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Because the problem is structured, the manager doesn’t have to go to the trouble and expense of going through an involved decision process. The “develop-the-alternatives” stage of the decision-making process either doesn’t exist or is given little attention. Why? Because once the structured problem is defined, the solution is usually self-evident or at least reduced to a few alternatives that are familiar and have proved successful in the past. * * Not all the problems managers face can be solved using programmed decisions. Many organizational situations involve unstructured problems, new or unusual problems for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Whether to build a new manufacturing facility in China is an example of an unstructured problem. * Exhibit 2-7 describes the differences between programmed and nonprogrammed decisions. Lower-level managers mostly rely on programmed decisions (procedures, rules, and policies) because they confront familiar and repetitive problems. As managers move up the organizational hierarchy, the problems they confront become more unstructured. * The ideal situation for making decisions is one of certainty, a situation where a manager can make accurate decisions because the outcome of every alternative is known. For example, when Wyomin