房地产投资风险评价研究管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

江苏大学硕士学位论文ABSTRACT 江苏大学硕士学位论文 ABSTRACT In recent years．real estate has become one of important investment tools for its hi曲return rate and stable value．However,the capitals invested into real estate are great and its payoff period is often very long，SO the risk of investment is much higher than that one investing others．Nowadays more and more people are devoting themselves to analyse and evaluate investment risk of real estate in order to avoid the risk and have developed many theories and methods．In our country,real estate market isnl t a rational mature market and the research on real estate investment 6,sk is still insufficient．Investors increasingly depend on their senses when they decide to invest on property．In such a condition，studying on investment risk of real estate scientifically and evaluating them systematically very important and inevitable． This paper has studied the investment characteristics of real estate in our country at first．And then we systematically analyse the possible risk that affect real estate investment included policy risk，social risk，economical risk，technological risk，natural risk and intemational risk．All these factor could affect the real state market development and investment returm．According to the lifecycle theory,we decompose the investment risk into risk in making strategic decision period，risk in preparing for building period，risk in buiding period，risk in saling period and risk inservice period．Base on the principle of science，completion，feasibility,operability and cleating，we select 22 evaluation factors to construct the risk evaluation system． By using fuzzy synthetic evaluation technology,we have developed new method for evaluating the risk in real estate investment， Finally,we have examined the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method by applying it into investing project。The result show that the new method can adequately indicate the risk degree of a real estate investment project．So it is worthful in predict the investment ri