考虑元件故障率变化的配电网可靠性评价.pdf

第43 卷 第11期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.43 No.11 2015 年 6 月 1 日 Power System Protection and Control Jun. 1, 2015 考虑元件故障率变化的配电网可靠性评估 赵洪山，赵航宇 (华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院，河北 保定 071003) 摘要：针对实际运行的配电网中元件发生故障的概率会随其运行时间而变化，提出一种考虑元件非恒定故障率的 配电网可靠性指标计算方法，结合配电网元件运行时间与发生故障次数的数据，提出用改造威布尔分布拟合元件 故障率随时间变化过程。在此基础上，用馈线区、元件、负荷三类数据结构表示配电网拓扑结构和参数，将故障 后的系统分为故障区域、前向区域、后向区域和无影响区域。对每个元件发生故障后的系统进行区域划分，建立 FMEA 表。最后，采用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法计算可靠性指标，模拟过程中考虑了元件的实时故障率。以IEEE RBTS BUS6 母线为算例，计算结果验证了该方法的有效性。 关键词：配电网；可靠性；故障率；序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法；FMEA Distribution system reliability analysis considering the elements failure rate changes ZHAO Hongshan, ZHAO Hangyu (Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China) Abstract: In view of the failure rate of a component in distribution system varying with its working time, this paper puts forward a distribution system reliability indices calculation method considering the elements failure rate changes. Combined with the failure times and working time data of components, reconstructive Weibull distribution is established to fit the component failure rate change process. On this basis, the method presents three types of data structures, namely segment data structure, element data structure and load point data structure to represent the topological structure and parameters of the distribution system. When fault occurs, the distribution system will be divided into four types of areas, namely fault area, forward area, backward area and unaffected