基于A股市场的财务困境预测模型的实证比较研究金融学专业论文.docxVIP

i i Abstract With the establishment and in-depth of the socialist market economic system, the competition among enterprises is becoming fiercer and fiercer. This kind of strong competition makes risk an objective to become the inevitable and financial distress is the most notability and comprehensive representation one. Once a company ran into financial distress, relevant shareholders, executives (by CEO leadership), such as the board of directors of the stakeholders and employees, customers, suppliers, creditors and other stakeholders would be affected and suffer loss without a doubt. And for this reason, financial distress and bankruptcy prediction is playing an important role in academic and practical field. This paper studies on the theory and empirical analysis on the comparisons of financial distress prediction models. Through review of domestic and international financial distress prediction model in the field of classical literature, I choose 342 companies from consumer products manufacturing industry that listed in China’s A share market from year 2000 to 2009, and then build up three models with MDA, static logistic and discrete-time hazard method. And also use different predictive factors that appeared in Altman(1968), Ohlson(1980) and Shumway’s(2001) original model and other factors selected from a bunch of candidate variables that have potential influence on the predictive power. After regress on the predictive factors, I compared models to investigate the predictive accuracy power both from horizontally with different predictors based on the same method and vertically with different statistical prediction techniques. This dissertation is composed of six parts. Part I is for introduction; Part II for literature review; Part III for introduction of theoretical models and methodology used in this dissertation; Part IV for empirical study of financial distress prediction; Part V is conclusion and Part VI is the limitation for this research. Key words: Fina