间歇式电源发电功率的不确定度模型-中国电机工程学报.PDF

第 38 卷 第 16 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.38 No.16 Aug. 20, 2018 4738 2018 年 8 月 20 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2018 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. DOI ：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.170616 文章编号：0258-8013 (2018) 16-4738-09 中图分类号：TM 769 间歇式电源发电功率的不确定度模型 1 1 2 王宗杰 ，郭志忠 ，王贵忠 (1．哈尔滨工业大学电气工程及自动化学院，黑龙江省 哈尔滨市 150001 ； 2．哈工大(张家口)工业技术研究院，河北省 张家口市 075400) Uncertainty Models of Statistical Forecast Uncertainty of Intermittent Power Sources 1 2 2 WANG Zongjie , GUO Zhizhong , WANG Guizhong (1. School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, Heilongjiang Province, China; 2. Harbin Institute of Technology at Zhangjiakou ITRIZ, Zhangjiakou 075400, Hebei Province, China) ABSTRACT: To quantitatively depict the statistical forecast 关键词：间歇式电源；统计规律；数字特征；发电功率；预 uncertainty of intermittent power sources, this paper not only 测误差；α函数；λ函数 defined the concept of power generation uncertainty, but also 0 引言 proposed a statistical function system to show the relationship between statistical forecast uncertainty and time advance. 风力及太阳能电源是间歇式电源(intermittent Firstly, statistical function α(t) was applied to describe the power sources ，IPS)[1-3] 。IPS 发电功率具有以间歇 uncertainties of the wind and solar power sources; Secondly, 性、随机性和波动性为基本特征的不确定性[4-6] 。这 statistical function α of all power sources ware combined into 种不确定性威胁电网的安全稳定，不利于电网的功 an sum statistical function α (t) with