基于Delphi法和分层模型的输电线路状态评价-电力系统及其自动化专业论文.docxVIP

三 三 峡 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II 内 容 摘 要 输电线路的状态评价是制定检修计划的重要依据。现有的输电线路状态评价多 是套用规程规定的固定权重，这在实际运用时难免数据僵硬、不便操作。本文研究 了一种新的输电线路状态评价方法。在建立输电线路层次评价模型的基础上，按照 Delphi 法的要求，请相应区域的输电专家对层次评价模型中的 8 个线路单元和 57 个状态量分别进行了重要性排序，然后应用 Delphi 方法逐层统计计算专家排序中涉 及到的不同指标的权重系数，再采用同一量度对安徽省某市(简称 A 市)2 条输电线 路进行打分，根据打分对权重系数进行状态评级计算及相应的修正，得到线路状态 的综合评价，评价结果显示该评价方法更具有有效性和科学性。 基于以上理论基础，采用 Windows server 2008 和 Microsoft Access 2003 数据库 建立了输电线路的专家评价系统，该系统在安徽省 A 市线路工区经过初步试用，进 一步验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。 关键词：输电线路 状态评价 层次模型 Delphi 法 权重系数 PAGE III PAGE III Abstract The state evaluation of power transmission line is the important basis for the development of maintenance plans. The current state evaluation of power transmission line is not flexible and inconvenient to operate in actual because the fixed weights set by rules are applied. A new state evaluation method for power transmission line is studied in this paper. In this method, a hierarchical model of state evaluation for transmission line is built first, and then according to the requirement of Delphi method,58 experts in the field of power transmission are asked to give the orders of the importance of 8 components and 57 criteria in the hierarchical evaluation model. Beside that, the weight coefficients of elements involved in the order given by experts are counted and calculated layer by layer with the Delphi method. At last, the same evaluation standard is used to grade 2 power transmitting lines of one city（ simple named A） in Anhui Province and the comprehensive status evaluation of the line is gained according to the new weight coefficients. The evaluation results reveal that the evaluation method is more effective and more scientific. Based on the basis theoretical above, expert evaluation system of transmission lines has been set up with Windows server 2008 and Microsoft Access 2003 database. After a preliminary trial by the department of charging line operation and maintenance of the system of that city in Anhui Province, the effectiveness and feasibilit