层次分析法在国际工程投标中决策模型的建立与应用.docxVIP

层次分析法在国际工程投标中决策模型的建立与应用 摘要 在国际工程投标中，由于影响因素较多，且难以量化，决策过 程往往取决于决策者的主观判断和经验。本文将层次分析法引入到 国际工程投标决策过程中，以期建立一种客观的投标方案评价体系, 减少主观因素对决策过程的影响。 本文根据国际工程投标的特点，归纳了影响投标决策的各种因 素，通过分析各因素间的相互关系，建立层次结构模型，然后通过 专家或有经验的项目管理人员对于各层次因素间的相对重要性作出 的定性判断，并构造出判断矩阵，通过矩阵运算得出指标权重，以 对各投标方案进行定量评判，并根据定量评判的结果作出投标决策 的优选方案。 文中通过作者参与的多个项目事例说明，用层次分析法建立的 投标决策模型有助于提高承包商的决策能力和承包商在国际工程承 包市场上的竞争能力。 文中同时也对基于层次分析法建立的决策模型的局限性也做了 一定的介绍，以在国际工程投标实践中更好地应用本文的模型和结 论。 关键词：层次分析法；国际工程承包；投标决策；层次结构模型。 Establishment and Application of Decision Model in International Engineering Bidding Based on AHP Method Abstract： During the bidding process of international engineering, there are many influence factors which are difficult to be quantified. So, decision making usually determined by decision-makers, subjective judgments and experiences. This paper introduces AHP method into bidding decision making process of international engineering, in order to establish an objective evaluation system and to reduce the subjective influences on the process of decision making. According to the bidding characters of international engineering, varied influence factors are summarized in this paper. The hierarchy model is then set up on the basis of mutual relationship analysis of these influence factors. The estimating matrix of the relative essentiality of factors in each hierarchy can be obtained on the qualitative evaluation from the expert or project management personnel. Through matrix operation, weight of index can be figured out and then be used in quantitative evaluation to different bidding schemes. Optimized scheme can be selected through the above process. In this paper, biddings and projects in which author has participated prove that the decision model based on AHP method is useful for contractor to enhance their competence in decision making and to improve their competitive performance in the market of international engineering contracting. The limitations of decision model based on AHP method are also introduced in this paper. Thi