基于巴菲特方法的价值投资理论计量研究工商管理专业论文.docxVIP

I I 摘要 摘 要 随着我国金融市场的逐步开放与我国股权分置改革的完成以及广大投资者投 资理念的逐步成熟，使得我国股市的体制和投资环境逐步改善，向着公正、合理、 规范的方向发展，我国股市越来越表现出投资价值。巴菲特作为价值投资的杰出 代表，近 50 年来取得了骄人的投资业绩，他的投资方法一直是投资者关注和研究 的对象。 本文综述部分全面总结了目前国内外研究巴菲特投资方法的现状，认为现有 的文献研究重点趋向于巴菲特投资的理念、原则等定性的方面，投资者很难进行 模仿和按照巴菲特方法进行操作。本文重点研究了作为价值投资典范的巴菲特风 格的价值投资方法体系，并对该体系在上市公司财务风险预警方面和对股市大势 判断方面进行了一定的扩展，同时，运用定量分析、实证研究等方法，基于中国 股票市场，研究了该方法的科学化、工程化和智能化问题，建立了较完备的价值 投资系统。 本文的研究发现，巴菲特投资方法可以通过对上市公司财务报表的横向和纵 向的定量分析，总结出一部分财务指标，结合本文构建的增长稳定性模型，可以 得到一个有良好效果的选股指标体系。实证研究发现，通过该指标体系选出的股 票，在不经过内在价值评估的情况下，走势仍然强于大盘。该指标体系加上利用 DCF 方法对公司内在价值评估以及利用 Delphi 方法对大盘走势预测，可以构造一 个完备的选股系统。研究表明，本文设计的基于巴菲特方法的选股系统能够选出 优秀的股票，其收益高于大盘指数。 关键词：价值投资,巴菲特方法,收益 II II Abstract Abstract With the gradual opening of the financial markets, the completion of split share structure reform, and the gradual maturity of investors’ general idea about the investment philosophy in China, the stock market system and the ecological environment get improved gradually. They developed towards a fair, reasonable and regulate direction, which makes it more and more obvious that Chinas stock market is value for money. As an outstanding representative of value investment, Warren Buffett achieved a spectacular level of investment performance in the past 50 years, and his investment approach has been the object which investors focus on and study. This paper summarizes the current status of researches on Buffett both domestic and international comprehensively in the part of literature review, and holds the idea that the existing literatures tend to focus on Buffetts investment philosophy, principles and other qualitative aspects, and it is difficult for investors to imitate and operate in accordance with methods of Warren Buffett. This article focuses on value investing method system of Buffett-style, a model of value investing, and makes certain expansion on the aspects of financial risk early warning of the system in listed companies, and the general trend on the stock market. Meanwhile, based on the Chinese stock market