基于单变量分析的我国上市公司财务预警模型研究-产业经济学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 随着我国经济改革正在不断深化，企业面对越来越激烈的市场竞争，时刻 面临经营失败陷入危机甚至破产的危险。而由于我国证券监管力度的不断加 强，上市公司退出机制的不断完善，上市公司不再高枕无忧，若经营不善，将 面临特别处理、暂停上市甚至终止上市的危机。如何建立财务预警系统，对企 业的财务运营过程进行跟踪、监控，及早发现财务危机信号，预测企业的财务 状况，无论对经营者、投资者、债权人、政府或其他相关利益主体来说，都具 有非常重要的现实意义。 本文以我国上市公司为研究对象，选择外部投资者的角度，用理论分析和 实证分析相结合的方法对上市公司财务预警问题进行了研究。本文首先对财务 预警有关的理论问题做了论述，然后引出本文对有关问题的考虑，提出要分阶 段、分行业并包含现金流量指标建立上市公司财务预警模型；最后本文把上市 公司财务状况划分为陷入ST(Special Treatment)和陷入PT(Particular Transfer) 两个阶段，以我国纺织和交通工具两个行业上市公司数据进行实证研究，并选 择七个财务指标建立了这两个行业的两阶段财务预警单变量判定模型。研究结 果表明：1、大部分指标对上市公司财务状况有较高的预测能力，且越接近陷入 sT或PT的时间，其预测结果越准确。2、对不同的行业、公司所处的不同的阶 段，财务指标的预测效果有所不同。对于第一阶段大部分单变量模型显示对交 通工具行业的预测效果较好，而对第二阶段而言，则对纺织行业预测效果较 好。3、七个指标中净资产收益率和总资产增长率预测效果最好，而现金流量类 的三个指标预测效果并不明显。 关键词：财务预警预测模型单变量分析 ABSTRACTWith ABSTRACT With the deepening of economic reform in China，more and more companies will have tO be faced with fierce competition．If a firm operate unsuccessfully，it will be hard to avoid going bankruptcy．Because more and more policies about security supervision and management will be set down by CSRC．Many listed companies will have to become “special treatment” or “particular treatment”companies．Even some of these companies will be eliminate from the list of stock exchange．Therefore，in many cases，finding ways tO try tO identify failing companies as early as possible is clearly a matter of considerable interest to manager，investors，creditors and auditors．One way to the aim is to predict financial distress of companies． This paper discusses how to establish the models for assessing the distress of corporations based unit variable．In the paper．we chose the datum of Chinese listed companies for positive analysis．These datum were classified and studied bv industry and time．We discussed seven variables separately．Then we established determinant models．In the end，we drew these conclusions by these models：1．Most of financial ratios Can predict the distress exactly，2．The predicting effects variety with industry and time．3．Return of equity and growth rate of assets are most s