基于混凝土大坝的泄洪建筑物风险指标体系及泄洪风险研究-水力学及河流动力学专业论文.docxVIP

AbstractTITLE：STUDY Abstract TITLE：STUDY ON INDEXES SYSTEM OF RISK ANANLYIS OF DISCHARGE STRUCTURES AND FLOOD DISCHARGE CALCULATION BASED ON CONCRETE DAM Major：Hydraulics and River Dynamics Name：Liliang Signature： Supervisor：Prof．Gang Chen Signature： 4呜∥ ABSTRACT Safety evaluation for water storage is necessary basis of water impoundment of large-scale hydropower projects．However,conclusion of safety evaluation still depends on qualitative analysis．So，in order to have a further level of dam government and insure safety operation of hydropower dam．study on risk quantity-analysis must be enhanced．Research on risk analysis must be based on establishing reasonable indexes system．Now,SOme indexes system for earth rock dam is based of fuzzy theory and amount of monitoring datas．So．it is limited to be applied into practice．In This paper,it is discussed that how to establish risk-analysis indexes system of flood discharge structures for concrete dam based Oil lack of monitoring da饥and how to measure the flood discharge risk furtherly． Firstly,this paper reviewed main CaUSeS of dam failure and hydraulic aceidences at home and abroad，and carried out that classification of risk factors．Compared with other indexes system，and referring the relative standards，it is initially established of generally risk-analysis indexes system of concrete dam based on Hong jiang hydropower station． Secondly,this paper introduces measurement method of quantity factors and discusses measurement and weighting of indexes system．Compared wjth different method,Analytic Hierarchy Process邮)is adequate for risk indexes of flood discharge．So，its application into hydro engineering is discussed． Finally,this paper researches methods of hydraulic risk analysis in flood discharge structures of concrete dam．For solving the problem of many random variables of nonnormal distribution，JC method is applied to calculate flood discharge risk,which js carried out by FORTRAN lang