金融不稳定对我国东中西部第三产业发展影响的测度模型与实证分析-国民经济学专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 体系划分为三部分：货币流动性子系统、资本市场运转子系统和宏观经济环境子 系统；并选取子系统的代表性指标，确定其阈值。本文选取基于变参数的状态空 间向量模型，就金融不稳定指标体系对我国东中西部地区第三产业发展的动态影 响效应进行实证研究和差异分析。 通过研究，发现：⑴对于东部地区第三产业而言，影响最大的是宏观经济环 境子系统，货币流动性和资本市场运转子系统次之；对于中部地区，货币流动性 和资本市场运转子系统作用较大，宏观经济环境子系统作用次之；对于西部地区， 三个子系统作用基本相同。⑵东中西部地区第三产业对金融不稳定总量指标影响 的变动趋势基本相似，中部地区第三产业受金融不稳定总量指标的影响程度要大 于东部地区，西部地区又大于中部地区。⑶金融不稳定比率指标对东中部地区第 三产业 GDP 的影响作用基本相同，但对西部地区第三产业 GDP 的作用却完全相反。 产生这些现象的原因与我国区域经济发展不均衡、产业结构和金融体制不够合 理、经济政策对不同地区产业的影响具有非对称性等原因有关，在实证分析当中 我们将进行深入的探讨并提出相关的对策建议。 最后，需要说明的是本文的研究具有一定的局限性。为使实证分析具有可操 作性，本文仅将金融不稳定指标体系简化为三个子系统；由于数据的可获得性， 系统代表性指标的选取不够丰富；受模型所限，本文的实证方法还不够完善；同 时，由于研究视角的有限性，文章还不够完整和科学。因此，只能在宏观层面上 提出相应的政策建议，而无法更有针对性地在微观层面提出对策建议。 关键词：金融不稳定；区域差异；第三产业 Metrical model and empirical research on the impacts of the financial instability to tertiary industries of three different regions Abstract The financial instability is a unstable state that the financial system cannot perform its key function effectively. The financial instability’s adverse effects on the global economy have received widespread attention in todays society. The financial crisis is its highest form and harm the world economy seriously. So the study on the nature of connotation, the transmission mechanism and the extent of the impacts of the financial instability is particularly important. These days, the process of financial liberalization in China is accelerating gradually. At the same time, the financial markets are facing more unstable factor because of the assault of international capital markets. Meanwhile, the reform of financial system still needs to deepen because of the unreasonable financial architecture, as well as the capital operating efficiency needs to be improved. So we can understand why the financial instability has very important effects on the development of macro-economy of China. Modern theories of the financial instability mainly follow with interest on the transmission mechanism of the financial instability, on the basis of the traditional theory of currency s