结构体系失效概率近似计算的条件概率降维法-水工结构工程专业论文.docxVIP

结构体系失效概率近似计算的条件概率降维法摘要 结构体系失效概率近似计算的条件概率降维法 摘要 本文主要介绍一种新的结构体系失效概率近似计算的方法——条件概 率降维法。文章由四章组成。第一章介绍了结构体系可靠度分析的必要性 和特点并回顾了现有常用的计算结构失效概率的方法。第二章简单论述单 个失效模式在标准正态随机向量空间中的可靠指标求法以及两个失效模式 之间相关系数的确定；第三章详细推导结构体系失效概率近似计算的条件 概率降维法：首先将结构体系失效概率近似计算的问题转化为高维标准正 态分布函数值计算的问题；然后通过将条件概率近似为某一正态分布，再 利用迭代的思想将高维标准正态分布值转化为多个一维标准正态分布值的 乘积，从而达到近似计算结构体系失效概率的目的。文章的第四章例举了 条件概率降维法的两个工程应用算例：一个重力坝和一个框架结构的失效 概率的计算。算例表明，条件概率降维法近似计算结构体系失效概率，精 度较好而且计算简单，适合工程应用。 关键词：结构体系失效概率条件概率降维法高维标准正态分布值重 力坝失效概率框架结构失效概率 DIMENSIoNS DIMENSIoNS REDUCTIoN METHoD BY CoNDITIoNAL PRoBABILITY FoR THE APPROXIMATIoN TO THE FAILURE PRoBABILITY oF STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS ABSTRACT This paper mainly introduces a new method to approximating the failure probability of structural systems and the method is defined as dimensions reduction method by conditional probability,The paper is consisted of four chapters．Chapter 1 briefly reviews the necessity and character of structural systems reliability analysis as well as the existing approaches of estimating the failure probability of structural systems． Chapter 2 describes how to obtain the reliability index of a failure mode and the correlation coefficient between two failure modes．Chapter 3 details the derivation of the introduced approach．As shown in this chapteB the calculation of the failure probability of a structural system is firstly transformed to the evaluation of a multi．normal distribution that can be then approximated by a product of one—dimensional normal integrals by substituting the conditional probability by a standard normal distribution and using the idea of iteration．The examples of the calculations of the failure probability of a gravity dam and a frame structure that are outlined in chapter 4 show the simple operation and the accuracy and the engineering practicality of the proposed approximation． KEY WORDS：the failure probability of structural systems；dimensions reduction method by conditional probability；multi·normal distribution；the failure probability of gravity dam；the