近50年陇东地区农业气候资源的时空变化特征及其对主要农作物的影响分析-自然地理学专业论文.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE VI （4）对主要农作物的影响：近 50a 陇东主要农作物小麦的播种面积显著减少， 并由南向北递减；玉米播种面积逐渐增加，表现为向北、向西推移。以小麦为主的种 植格局逐渐转变为以小麦、以其他粮食作物、以小麦和其他粮食作物等为主的三种种 植结构类型均衡发展的种植格局；以小麦为主的种植区域西移北退，以其他粮食作物 为主的种植区域向东推移，以小麦和其他粮食作物为主的种植区域则逐渐南扩。研究 区两年三熟制区域显著北移扩大，一熟制区域减少，尤其是 21C 以来，且复种指数提 高。近 30a 来主要农作物的生长发育受温度、降水和光照的共同作用，每 10a 冬小麦 播种期推后 2~3d，返青期提前 4d，使得冬小麦越冬期和营养生长期缩短，开花期提 前 4~5d，成熟期提前 5~6d，全生育期缩短 8~9d，而生殖生长期长度变化不大；每 10a 玉米播种期提前 2d，出苗期提前 3d，拔节期提前 8d，孕穗期提前 4d，抽穗期提前 9d， 开花期提前 8d，吐丝期提前 7d，成熟期提前 9d，使营养生长期缩短 2~3d，生殖生长 期缩短 4~5d，全生育期缩短 6~7d。 关键词：农业气候资源；时空变化；主要农作物；影响；陇东地区 Abstract Agro-climatic resource is one of the important environmental resources for agricultural production, including the climatic factors such as heat, water and solar energy are closely related to agricultural production, their amount and conditions of space combination are vary from place to place, resulting in the regional differences of a wide range of light, heat, water resources in different degrees, and to some extent affected the structure and layout of the local agricultural production, crop species and varieties and cultivation methods and so on. Therefore, it has a great significance that analysis on the temporal and spatial variation of regional agro-climatic resources for the development strategy formulation and long-term planning of regional agriculture. The study based on daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 and integrated a variety of mathematical statistics methods of the climate trend rate, the Standardized Precipitation Index, the Penman-Monteith formula, the spatial interpolation of Inverse Distance Weighted, the elevation correction, the contour function, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), fast clustering analysis, correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis for quantitative study of the temporal and spatial variation of agro-climatic resources of heat, water and light energy in eastern Gansu, and analyzed the impact of agricultural climate resources cha