近52年北疆热量资源时空变化及其对熟制的影响-作物栽培学与耕作学专业论文.docxVIP

Spatial—Temporal Spatial—Temporal Variation Change of Heat Resources and the Impact of Climate Change on Multiple Cropping in Northern Area of Xinjiang in the past 52 Years Abstract Based the data collected from 48 meteorological stations in the North ofXinjiang from 1961 to 2012，the paper analyzes file influence ofthe change ofthe annual mean temperature，frost free pedod， the first and last date of三O℃and之10℃，duration days above三012 and兰lO℃，≥0℃and兰10℃ accumulated temperature and the excessively average accumulated temperature above 10℃Call be used after winter wheat harvest in recent 52 years in Northem Xinjiang by using linear regressions，M-K test，t— test,a linear regression equation，parson correlmion analysis and Inverse Distance Weighted of Arcgis 9．3． The results showed that(1)Heat resource in the north ofXinjiang in the past 52 years was increasing faster than Chinas average warming wend overally,after the 1 980s，the increase is more obvious than before．Variation of annual mean temperature，frost-free period，三0℃accumulated temperature and三0℃ accumulated temperature trend rate were 0．36℃·(10a)-1 4．72 d-(10a)-1．83．73℃·d·(10a)“and 80．66℃·d·(10a)～．First day，last date and duration days above 0℃were 0．85 d·(10a)～，一2．04 d·(10a) and2．57d·(10a)～．Firstday。1astdateand durationdays above 10℃were0．85 d·(10a)～，．1．74 d·(10a) and 2．65 d·(10a)-1．Cities and counties heat resources were mainly increasing，and only such areas as Yiwu,Wenquan，Qitai and Urumqi have the trends of negative zero growth． (2)Influenced by the increased heat resource，since the late of 1980s，multiple cropping significantly extended from the central plains to the northwest and west plains in the North Area of Xinjiang．27．1％of the counties and cities have achieved three crops for two years．and l 6．7％of the counties and cities have achieved two crops year；也ere are the most abundant heat resources in the city of Turpan and the surrounding parts．having reached three crops year．111e with one crop year have reduc