基于Logistic模型的房地产公司财务预警研究——来自-AtlantisPress.PDF

Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, volume 155 2nd International Conference on Humanities Science and Society Development (ICHSSD 2017) The Financial Pre-warning Research of Real Estate Company Based on Logistic model -- Economic Data of 114 Real Estate listed Companies in China from 2012 to 2014 1 LIU Wei-wei , LI Hou-jian* (College of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China) Keywords: Real Estate; Listed Company; Logistic Regression Model; Financial Early-warning Abstract ：The financial early-warning is very important for real estate listed companies to guard against financial risk correctly and to promote sustainable development. The paper uses non-parameter test based on 20financial ratios, in order to find financial ratios which can significantly identify the different between ST and non-ST companies. And then it studies the financial early-warning for real estate listed company based on logistic regression model by using the SPSS software. The results show that the model based on logistic regression model is of good effect, and has good predictive accuracy. 基于 Logistic模型的房地产公司财务预警研究 ——来自我国 114家房地产上市公司 2012—2014年经济数据 1 刘维维 ，李后建* （1.四川农业大学管理学院，四川 成都 611130） 关键词：房地产；上市公司；Logistic 模型；财务预警 摘要：加强公司财务预警研究，有利于正确防范财务风险，促进可持续发展。本文以我国 114 家房地产上市公司为研究样本，通过构建反映我国房地产上市公司特征的财务风险评价指标 体系，创建一个实效简便的财务危机预警模型，并进行应用分析。研究结果发现，主营业务 收入增长率、净资产增长率、净资产收益率、应收账款周转率、固定资产周转率、总资产周 转率、每股收益、每股净资产这 8 个财务指标具有显著区分 ST 与非 ST 公司的能力，基于 Logistic 模型的财务危机预警研究具有良好的预测准确度。 1 引言