德银-欧洲-股票策略-随着“金发女孩”效应缩小，斯托克600指数下降5%-20180205-13页.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Research Sebastian Raedler +44-20754-18169 sebastian.raedler@ Tom Pearce, CFA +44-20754-16568 thomas.pearce@ Andreas Bruckner +44-20754-18171 andreas.bruckner@ 5 February 2018 European Equity Strategy Stoxx 600 drops 5%, as the goldilocks gap starts to close Distributed on: 05/02/2018 18:23:00 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI(P) 083/04/2017. 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Stoxx 600 drops 5%, as the goldilocks gap starts to close  Stoxx 600 drops 5%, as the goldilocks gap starts to close: The Stoxx 600 has declined by around 5% from its January 23rd high of 403 and is now down 1% year-to-date. Our models suggest that only around half of the pull-back is explained by the 20bps rise in the Euro area real bond yield (the discount rate for the equity market) against the backdrop of the Euro area composite PMI new orders no longer improving (see below). As a consequence, the market is now around 6% below the fair-value level implied by our tactical model (382 versus a current fair-value of 410). That said, we expect the goldilocks gap of strong growth in combination with a low discount rate to continue closing over the coming months, mainly because of a softening in Euro area macro momentum. As a consequence, the projected Stoxx 600 fair-value on our models declines to ar