512定量分析论文.docVIP

四川理工学院经济与管理学院学年论文 5.12地震对四川旅游业影响的 定量分析研究 四川理工学院经济与管理学院 二OO九年一月 四川理工学院学年论文 摘要 四川是我国拥有世界自然文化遗产和国家重点风景名胜区最多的省份，旅游业是四川经济支柱产业之一，2007年全省生产总值达10505.3亿元，旅游总收入达到1217.31亿元，旅游收入占GDP比重超过8%。2008年5.12汶川特大地震灾害不仅令四川方向的旅游线路全部暂停，亦使民众于四川旅游的心理形成严重阻障，从而对四川旅游业的发展造成巨大影响。本文尝试借助SARIMA模型及ARIMA模型定量分析、测算及预测此突发事件对四川旅游业的经济影响程度和作用时滞，以克服实际工作部门采用传统“同期比”法测算该影响时，不考虑旅游业等经济序列长期自身发展趋势的不足，以期能得到关于5.12汶川地震对四川旅游收入影响的客观综合认识。 关键词：SARIMA 、ARIMA模型，5.12汶川地震，四川旅游业 ABSTRACT Sichuan province of our country owns the most natural cultural inheritance, nation point scenery famous spot and key spot of interest in the world. Tourism is one of the pillar industries in Sichuan’s economy, Sichuan province receive 1,050,530,000,000 dollars as the total output value in 2007, and the tour income attains 121,731,000,000 dollars, having reached an percentage of GDP which is more than 8%. The 5.12 especially heavy earthquake of Wenchuans is not only makes all of directional tour circuits in Sichuan paused, but also makes people produce serious mental obstacle in travelling to Sichuan, then resulted in huge influence to the development of Sichuan’s tourism. This article measure to analyse, calculate and predict the degree time lag of the impacts of this sudden affairs on Sichuan ’s tourism receipts quantificationally based on the SARIMA and the ARIMA model. This method enables to overcome the defect of traditional methods of using contemporaneous ratios by taking into consideration of the auto-developmental trends of tourism. It is expected to be able to provide an objective and compositive understanding of the impacts of 5.12 earthquakes of Wenchuan on Sichuan ’s tourism receipts. Key word: SARIMA、ARIMA model，5.12 earthquakes of Wenchuan Sichuan tourism 四川理工学院学年论文 目录 前言1 研究背景及研究方法1 2.1 研究背景1 2.2 研究方法2 2.2.1 ARIMA模型及SARIMA模型概述2 2.2.2 研究思路2 汶川地震对四川省旅游业经济影响的分析3 3.1 序列平稳性和零均值检验4 3.2 模型识别和参数估计6 3.3 模型确定及检验6 3.4 经济影响预测7 3.4.1 无突发事件经济影响预测8 3.4.2 确定影响因子实现突发事件下经济影响预测8 3.5经济影响分析及结果分析 10 结束语 10 参考文献11 致谢辞12 附录13 第PA