基于现金流量的企业财务风险评价研究-会计学专业论文.docxVIP

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 I I 摘要 当今世界，企业所处的经济环境复杂多变。经济的波动、市场的竞争和信息的不对称都 导致企业时时刻刻面临各种不确定因素，因而风险管理成为企业管理的一个重要内容。现金 在一定时期内是一种相对稀缺的资源，在企业的运营过程中，从现金的投入、产品的生产、 销售的实现直到现金的收回，在这一系列环节中，现金的充足性及有效性将对企业的生存发 展起到至关重要的作用。 本文首先介绍了现有的企业财务风险评价方法，并分析了它们的缺陷；然后从现金流量 的角度出发，提出了企业财务风险评价的现金流量法，并阐述了现金流量法的优点。在本文 提出的企业财务风险评价模型中将现金流量与 BP 神经网络相结合，构建了企业财务风险评 价的新体系，它既克服了现有财务风险研究方法的缺陷，又发挥了人工神经网络的优势。本 文以我国酿酒行业的 27 家上市公司为样本进行分析，运用上述方法构建出的模型进行了财 务风险评价， 结果表明构建的财务风险评价模型达到了预期的效果。本文最后从经营活动、 筹资活动及投资活动三个方面对财务风险的控制进行了阐述。 关键词：现金流量，财务风险，BP 神经网络，风险控制 基于现金流量的企业财务风险评价研究 Abstract Nowadays, the economic environment is complicated. Economic fluctuation, market competition and the information asymmetry make enterprises facing various uncertainty, and risk management has become an important part of enterprise management. Financial risk as the key link of risk management is important in the process of development of enterprise. Cash is a relatively scarce resource in the period of time，the operation process in the enterprise, from the cash investment, production and sales until the cash back the realization that in this series of sessions, the adequacy and effectiveness of cash survival and development of enterprises will play a crucial role. This paper first introduces existing enterprise financial risk assessment method, and analyzed their defects, then from the angle of cash flow, puts forward the enterprise financial risk evaluation of the cash flow method, and explains the cash flow method advantage. In this paper, the corporate financial risk assessment model combines the cash flow and the BP neural network to construct a new enterprise system for financial risk assessment, both to overcome the existing financial risk of the defect, and also play the artificial neural network advantage. In the empirical part of the wine industry of the 27 listed companies as samples, the above model that was constructed out of a financial risk assessment was used, the results show that the financial risk assessment model cons